July 29th at Del Mar

by STRETCH

Well it is quite obvious where the big money will be bet on Wednesday. Del Mar’s pick 6 should easily hit $3,000,000. My first scan tells me it is not easy. Many unknowns throughout the sequence. Not saying don’t play it but I think your choice is go in a group and play a bigger ticket or go in on your own but keep it small.

Del Mar Race#3  Pick 6     Post time 6:09 eastern

Race#3  The likely favourite will be the 1. If I thought he had any chance of getting a light breather on the front end he would be a key. I doubt it very much he doesn’t get pressure every step of the way, hence need others. The 1 should put away all the other early pace horses so then the best closers are the 4,6. Might be to short but they will be flying late.

Race#4 Wide open race with a few unknowns. I like the equipment change on the 7 because may she can relax a little on the front end. Class drop on the 6 is also a must use. The 3 is the other use horse, take note of the horse she beat (11 horse who then ran a nice race at a higher level)

Race#5 A small field with many unknowns. The 3 will be the favourite, especially after the 7 got scratched. My problem keying the 3 is I am never a fan of taking a horse that has raced on the “B” circuit. Couldn’t win at LRC and usually softer maiden races there. The other problem is all horses on going on the turf and long for the first time. There are no strong trainer angles and even the turf breeding doesn’t jump out at me for the race. Its either an “all” race if spending a bunch or taking the 1 and 3 only.

Race#6 Only the 3,5 should win this. The 1 is scratched and the rest don’t really belong at this level. If I had to key it would be the 3 who is sitting on a win.

Race#7 My longshot of the day is the 7. Has the figures and the closing style to win. The 5 may have the highest beyer on the page but I am all about the last closing fraction. The 10 should be the controlling speed. If spreading its the 5,7,10

Race#8 A race with lots of early pace. The 1 has the rail and the speed so is a must use, but no key. The 2 ran a very nice race last time out and a repeat effort gives him a shot. The 5 is the other closer and could upset at a price. Another price horse is the 9, who fires out early and if clears has a small shot to win.

Here is a possible ticket: 1,4,6/3,6,7/1,3/3/7/1,2,9        cost: $108

A very tough sequence, my guess is a minimum of $20,000 payout.

Good luck everyone, and if/when someone hits send me the ticket. I would like to see how you played it and others I would think too.

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