Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Woodbine Mile Weekend

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis

by: Ed Meyer

Woodbine / Saturday 9-19-2020

Race #7 – The G-3 Singspiel – 1 1/4 on the turf – 4:27 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Nakamura / #3 – Admiralty Pier / #8 – Count Again

#9 Nakamura is a son of Animal Kingdom for Graham Motion making his 3rd start off the layoff where they win 15%. He’s a solid closer and rider Kazushi Kimura wins 15% with his turf runners. The distance should be no problem and has plenty of time to unleash a rally with the long stretch. #3 Admiralty Pier is a speedy sort making his 3rd off the shelf effort. He is 4 for 9 ITM at Woodbine and will go out and set a strong pace under David Moran. #8 Count Again is a stout closer for trainer Gail Cox and  2 for 2 ITM over the course. Luis Contreras in the irons, and he scores 12% on the weeds. He’s 5 for 5 ITM lifetime.

Race #9 – The G-1 Ricoh Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 5:39 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Starship Jubilee / #8 – War of Will / #1 – March to the Arch

#4 Starship Jubilee hails from the Kevin Attard barn with Justin Stein aboard. She’s 8 for 13 ITM at Woodbine and should break close to the pace in mid flight. A versatile sort who can grab the lead if needed or lay just off and pounce down the lane. #8 War of Will enters for Mark Casse and Rafael Hernandez in the irons. This son of War Front should be right on the pace and can draw off if left alone. He is 2 for 2 ITM at Woodbine and exits a very nice win in the G1 Maker Mile at KEE. #1 March to the Arch is a stone cold closer for Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands. He loves the track going 2 for 2 with wins and should come calling when they turn for home.

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Woodbine / Sunday 9-20-2020

Race #7 – The G-1 Summer – 1 mile on the turf – 4:29 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Ready to Repeat / #4 – Gretzky the Great / #7 – Dolder Grand

#3 Ready to Repeat hails from the Gail Cox barn with Luis Contreras in the irons. He gets first Lasix and is 2 for 2 ITM over the course. The trainer wins 23% first time going a route of ground and Contreras wins 20% with early style runners. #4 Gretzky the Great has a good turn of foot and is 2 for 2 ITM over the course. Mark Casse is winning 17% at the meet and looks to steal the race with this son of Nyquist. The morning works have been very nice and show a promise of things to come. #7 Dolder Grand enters for Mark Casse and is a maiden. This son of Candy Ride came rolling last out from a troubled trip as the beaten favorite. Casse must have plenty of confidence going forward and has the veteran Patrick Husbands in the saddle.

Race #9 – The G-1 Natalma – 1 mile on the turf – 5:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Sleek Lynx / #5 – Alda / #4 – Dreaming of Drew

#3 Sleek Lynx is a son of War Front for Mark Casse with Rafael Hernandez in the saddle. Hernandez is winning 20% at the meet and 26% teaming up with Casse. She showed good closing kick last out and was bumped soundly beaten at the wire. A rider switch and some solid works show a strong game plan. #5 Alda is a daughter of Munnings for Graham Motion and Steven Bahen in the irons. She’s a late runner and should enjoy the added distance. 2nd time off the layoff and a bullet work give plenty to like coming into the race. #4 Dreaming of Drew is a daughter of Speightster and has the look of a mid flight stalker. Justin Stein has the call for Barbara Minshall and looks to be right on the pace today.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, Sept. 12

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, 9/12/20

by: Ed Meyer

Kentucky Downs

Race #7 – The G-3 – Ladies Turf – 1 mile turf – 4:27 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Mitchell Road / #2 – Princess Causeway / #8 – Secret Message

#1 Mitchell Road is a daughter of English Channel for Bill Mott and Luis Saez in the saddle. She’s going out for the lead and Saez wins 22% with early style runners. She finished 2nd in this race last year as the beaten favorite and looks to turn the tables. #2 Princess Causeway is a long range closer for Ian Wilkes and Chris Landeros. They win 16% as a team and she’s 2 for 2 with wins on the undulating course. She’ll come calling around the far turn getting in position for the long run. #8 Secret Message hails from the Graham Motion barn with John Velasquez in the irons and has a solid late punch that can put out your lights.

Race #8 – The G-3 Ladies Turf Sprint – 6 1/2f – 4:59 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8- Got Stormy / #7 – Cariba / #9 – Into Mystic

#8 Got Stormy hails from the Mark Casse barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. This is her 2nd off the layoff move and she’s a perfect stalker. Her style fits the track and Gaffalione is 7 for 9 ITM at KyD. #7 Cariba enters for Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. 3rd off the shelf and they win 21% on this move. #9 Into Mystic is a solid stalker for Brandon Walsh with Joe Talamo in the irons. 2nd off the layoff and exits a grass win at Ellis Park.

Race #10 – The Kentucky Turf Cup – 1 1/2 miles turf – 6:04 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Zulu Alpha / #2- Red Knight / #3 – Grand Journey

#10 Zulu Alpha comes from the Mike Maker barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. He is 1 for 2 ITM at KyD and been off for 2 months. He is 7 for 10 ITM at the distance and has a strong late kick. Gaffalione wins 16% with late runners and he’s had a great meet to date. #2 Red Knight hails from the Bill Mott barn and Luis Saez in the driver’s seat. His late punch will come in handy down the long stretch and Saez wins 20% with late runners. #3 Grand Journey enters for Mike Maker and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. His last effort was troubled and is one to toss out. He has a nice way of moving and should be in the running at the top of the lane.

Race #11 – The G-3 Runhappy Turf Sprint – 6f turf – 6:36 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Front Run the Fed / #5 – Bombard / #9 – Imprimis

#3 Front Run the Fed comes from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. He is 7 for 8 ITM on the turf and cuts back in distance. I like his chances to lay in mid flight and make a well timed move in the lane. #5 Bombard is turning back in distance shipping in from California for Richard Mandella. He is a son of War Front and Flavien Prat has the call. Prat wins with 25% of his turf runners and should be a factor. #9 Imprimis is a son of Broken Vow with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s a closer and gets added distance off his last effort. This is his 2nd off the layoff, and ran 4th in this race last year. He’s looking to finish the job as they turn for home.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/5/2020 – Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/5/2020 – Kentucky Derby

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs – Derby Day

Race #8 – The G-2 American Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 2:55 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Smooth Like Strait / #4 – Field Pass / #3 – Sugoi

#5 Smooth Like Strait is a speedy son of Midnight Lute for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This is his 2nd off the layoff where the barn wins 18%. Versatile sort who can grab the lead or lay just off. He is 1 for 1 at CD and the same at the distance. Major player today. #4 Field Pass is a closing sort shipping in from Saratoga. Mike Maker is winning 17% with his grass starts and has Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle is winning 26% with Maker. He is 3 for 3 ITM at CD and has a nice late punch. #3 Sugoi is a mid pack stalker for Mike Tomlinson and Joe Rocco Jr. He was claimed off a tough 2nd place finish at CD and looks to be a solid fit in the race.

Race #9 – The G-2 Pat Day Mile – 1 mile – 3:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Cezanne / #2 – Echo Town / #9 – Rushie

#1 Cezanne is a son of Curlin for Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux. He’s cutting back from 8.5 furlongs and should relish the distance of the one turn mile. Look for an alert break keeping an eye on the pace to see when to push the button. #2 Echo Town hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the irons. A perfect stalker who may have the perfect style going the one turn mile. #9 Rushie enters for Mike McCarthy and Javier Castellano. He’s been off for 56 days since the G2 Bluegrass. His late run is solid, and Castellano wins 21% with late runners.

Race #10 – The G-3 Iroquois – 1 mile – 4:07 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Therideofalifetime / #3 – Super Stock / #7 – Pico d’ Oro

#10 Therideofalifetime is a son of Candy Ride for Ignacio Correas  IV with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He’s a speedy sort who should break close to the action from the start. Going a one turn mile may fit his wheelhouse and let him grab the lead with a rider who scores 19% with up close runners. #3 Super Stock is a son of Dialed In for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. He exits the Texas Futurity off a solid win and picks up Asmussen’s go to rider Santana. He’ll be up close as he gets the acid test today moving up the ladder. #7 Pico d’ Oro is a son of Curlin for William Morey and Javier Castellano. He has a nice late run and should relish the one turn mile. He moves up in class and sports a bullet work to prepare for the journey.

Race #11 – The G-2 Longines Churchill Distaff – 1 mile on the turf – 4:39 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 Newspaperofrecord / #6 – Beau Recall  /#2 – Daddy Is a Legend

#4 Newspaperofrecord hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. She is 2 for 2 ITM and 7 for 8 ITM on the turf. She has been off for two months and will come out quick from the gate break. Castellano wins 26% teaming up with Chad Brown. #6 Beau Recall is a closer for Brad Cox and Manny Franco in the irons. She is 8 for 10 ITM at the distance and ran second to the favorite back in the G1 Just a Game. If the pace is solid she’ll make her run around the final turn. #2 Daddy is a Legend comes in for Rusty Arnold and Florent Geroux in the saddle. This is her 2nd start of the year and looks to be getting ready for a fall campaign. A nice late kick with a rider who wins 19% with late runners is promising.

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Race #12 – The G-1 Derby City Distaff – 7f – 5:17 pm

BetPTC.com Selections/ #9 – Bellafina / #8 – Serengeti Empress / #10 – Ce Ce

#9 Bellafina is a daughter of Quality Road for Simon Callaghan with Mike Smith in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and 7 for 7 ITM at the distance. She’s a solid late runner and Smith wins 27% with closers. #8 Serengeti Empress hails from the Thom Amoss barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. She has quick early foot and will be a pace player from the gate. This is her 3rd off the layoff where Amoss wins 26%. #10 Ce Ce enters for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This daughter of Elusive Quality is a let runner and will be heard from in the final furlong. Don’t leave her out of your exotics.

Race #13 – The G-1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:50 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Scared Life / #1 – Factor This / #2 – Bowie’s Hero

#8 Sacred Life is a solid late runner for Chad Brown and Paco Lopez in the irons. Lopez wins 20% with his grass runners and 26% with late running types. I like his chances at a square price in this field. His win at Monmouth was very nice last out as a prep. #1 Factor This has blistering speed and draws the rail for Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan. He is 2 for 3 IT at CD and will jump out and snag the lead. Bridgmohan wins 25% with early runners. #2 Bowie’s Hero hails from the Phil D’Amato barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. 2rd off the layoff and the barn scores at 17% on this move. The rider fits and Geroux wins 20% with closing style runners.

Race #14 – The G-1 Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 – 7:01 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #17 – Tiz the Law / #16 – Honor A.P. / #7 – Money Moves

#17 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. He seeks his 5th straight win for Sackatoga Stable. He can jump out and overcome the #17 jinx with his versatile style of running. This is his 2nd off a brief layoff and ships in from the Spa. I’m looking for Franco to send from the outside and grab solid position. If he can be in the top six or seven runners as they past the Twin Spires the first time he’s going to be awfully tough. Look for Franco to keep him out of traffic and grab the lead before they make the turn for home. #16 Honor A.P. hails from the John Shirreff’s barn with Mike Smith in the saddle. A perfect stalker who will be very close to Tiz the Law not letting him out of view. When the real running begins look for Smith to press the chalk and play the role of the spoiler. #7 Money Moves is a son of Candy Ride for Todd Pletcher. Lightly raced and his efforts have all been promising. He was a beaten chalk last out and Pletcher comes back to score at a 26% win clip. This will be an acid test, and having Javier Castellano in the irons is a plus on big races.

Kentucky Derby 146 – Analyzing the Favorite

Churchill Downs finishBy ART PARKER for “Racing’s Best Kept Secret” BetPTC.com.

Not long ago a friend of mine that pays a small amount of attention to horse racing asked me, “Who will win the Derby?” I learned long before the turn of the century that answering that question is tough, if not impossible, for any good horseplayer. So, I answered with my usual smarty pants response of, “The one that crosses the line first.”

My friend would have none of that and responded with, “That’s what you said last year but that guy got disqualified,” referring to Maximum Security being the first Derby winner in 145 years to be disqualified for a racing violation during the running of the race. My next comeback was a simple, “I don’t know.” Then I came up with a verbal guarantee and proclaimed, “But I can guarantee who the favorite will be!”

Well, I didn’t say I was brave and going out on a limb with that prediction.

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Tiz the Law will be the favorite if he goes to the post, and as of this moment, there is no reason to believe he will be left out of the proceedings. There is no doubt in my mind and the mind of anyone who knows anything about horse racing in 2020.

The New York bred has won six of seven, four of which are Grade Ones. You rarely see that with any horse that is Derby bound. As a three-year-old he has won almost all of the big races. His victories include the Florida Derby, the Travers, and the Belmont Stakes (at a changed distance of nine furlongs). As a juvenile, he notched his first Grade One with a victory in the Champagne Stakes – one of the most important races for the two-year-olds.

In the Derby points standing he has not only accumulated more points than anyone in history (372 points), his closest rival in the standings is a very good colt named Authentic with only 200 points.

He is beautifully bred. His nicely bred sire, Constitution, was a Florida Derby winner that never had a complete chance to show how good he was. That means that Tiz the Law is a grandson of Tapit, the world’s top stallion. His dam is Tiz Fiz by Tiz Now. We all know that Tiznow is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Need I say more about the breeding of Tiz the Law?

His races have been impressive. He is quick from the gate but doesn’t need the lead. He has a good tactical speed to be close to the pace and stalk leaders. Tiz the Law is the epitome of class in my book because he appears to do the most important thing a racehorse can do – he follows orders and does what he is told to do. I saw this when he won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He was up close and in good position but pinned on the rail and had to take up down the backstretch. His rider, Manny Franco, checked his mount slightly, moved him outside of horses for a clear run, and asked him to advance. About the time Tiz the Law regained position, Franco said “Enough for now” and Tiz the Law went back to cruising instead of attacking. When it came time to attack Franco encouraged him slightly to go and he went into semi-assault mode. Once clear in the stretch Franco suggested a total attack and it quickly became a bad day for the rest of the field.

This appears to be his normal race. Get position, advance quietly to challenge then pounce – and take no prisoners.

In watching his races I have only seen one potential problem for Tiz the Law. He sometimes appears to have a little trouble in the turns. The difficulty is probably not enough to not cause concern, but in the Derby and a big field, anything can cost even the best horse the race. Franco has won over 1,000 races and is not viewed as one the classic riders, but I think Tiz the Law is in good hands and thus far Franco has been a great partner.

Others may believe that Churchill Downs may be a problem for him because that is the venue of his only loss, the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. I have a hard time buying that. Tiz the Law bobbled some leaving the gate and was in good position on the rail, but never had anywhere to go and was throttled back on a couple of occasions. He finally found a hole but the odds were stacked against him by that time. The track was off that day, and some may think that was an issue in the race. The rough trip was the downfall for Tiz the Law in his only loss.

I’m not touting Tiz the Law simply because I don’t like favorites from a wagering standpoint. However, if Tiz the Law is healthy, if weather and track condition are not an issue, and if he has a fair trip, then I will be shocked if he doesn’t win.

I don’t consider this three-year-old crop to be all that great. I’ve seen almost forty Derbies, and Tiz the Law is probably good enough to have won several of them. He is not Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Man o’ War or Affirmed, but when one combines his talent with the weak competition he seems invincible in 2020.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 29

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 29, 2020

by: Ed Meyer

Saratoga Race #7 – The G-2 Amsterdam – 6f – 4:32 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Long Weekend / #2 – Yaupon / #1 – Basin

#3 Long Weekend is a speedy colt for Thomas Amoss and Luis Saez. Saez is an aggressive gate rider and wins 21% with early speed. He’s been off 50 days and sports a red hot work to prepare. He is 4 for 4 ITM going 6f. #2 Yaupon is a son of Uncle Mo for Steven Asmussen and Joel Rosario. A perfect stalker who could be dangerous just off the speed. Rosario is winning 21% at the meet and 36% teaming up with Asmussen. #1 Basin is a son of Liam’s Map for Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz. He’s been off 49 days since KEE and makes a big cut back in distance where he broke his maiden last year.

Race #8 – The G-1 Forego – 7f – 5:07 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Whitmore / #10 – Mind Control / #8 – Firenze Fire

#2 Whitmore hails from the barn of Ron Moquette and Luis Saez. He is 2 for 2 ITM at the Spa and a solid closer. His trip over the track in the G1 Vanderbilt may have him in top gear. He gets added distance and may be a little closer under Saez. #10 Mind Control comes from the barn of Gregory Sacco and John Velasquez in the irons. This son of Stay Thirsty has more speed and can be a pace factor in the hands of Johnny V. The barn wins 25% with graded stakes and Velasquez wins 25% with sprinters. #8 Firenze Fire comes from the Kelly Breen barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. He is 3 for 6 ITM over the course and should be a mid flight stalker. He’s a gamer and don’t leave him off your exotic tickets.

Race #9 – The G-1 Sword Dancer – 1 1/2 on the inner-turf – 5:43 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Sadler’s Joy / #7 – Pedro Cara / #6 – Cross Border

#8 Sadler’s Joy comes from the barn of Thom Albertrani with Javier Castellano in the irons. He is 5 for 9 ITM at the Spa over the course and has a wicked late turn of foot. He’s done well on the tight turns of the inner turf and will be a factor with a clean trip. #7 Pedro Cara is a son of Pedro the Great for the Graham Motion barn. His last start at Belmont in the Jockey Club Derby was solid at a huge price. He’s a strong late runner and Johnny V is a 36% ITM rider on the sod. Look for a late kick round the far turn. #6 Cross Border hails from the barn of Mike Maker with Jose Ortiz aboard. They are winning 44% as a team and this guy is 5 for 5 with wins over the Spa course. He loves the inner track and a versatile runner who can be close or lay back if needed.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 22

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 22, 2020

by: Ed Meyer

Saratoga Race #9 – The G1 Fourstardave – 1 mile on the turf – 5:46 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Raging Bull / #6 – Uni / #8 – Without Parole

#1 Raging Bull hails from the Chad Brown barn and 3 for 3 ITM at the Spa. This is his 2nd off the layoff from his last effort at Keeneland. He’s been working strong in the morning and Joel Rosario has the call. He’s a strong late runner and gets the rail draw today. His last race was very good as a beaten chalk in Kentucky and was rolling on the lush green at KEE. #6 Uni enters for Chad Brown with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. She’s a late runner who is 3 for 3 ITM at Saratoga. She’s handled the boys in the past winning the BC Mile, and Ortiz wins 20% with late runners on the weeds. #8 Without Parole is a son of Frankel (GB) for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz in the irons. His race in the G1 Makers Mile was super strong and has a solid late punch. Looks for him late in the lane.

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Del Mar Race #9 – The G1 Del Mar Oaks – 1 1/8 on the turf – 9:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Laura’s Light / #4 – Warren’s Showtime / #8 – Neige Blanche

#10 Laura’s Light goes to post for Peter Miller and Abel Cedillo. This daughter of Constitution is seeking her third straight win and should be right on the pace. She is 2 for 2 ITM at DM and has won at this distance. Her dam Light of a Star has 5 starters, 5 winners, and three of which are turf winners. #4 Warren’s Showtime goes postward for Craig Lewis and Mike Smith. She has a strong late run and Smith wins 27% with late runners on the turf. #8 Neige Blanche is shipping in from France and makes her first start in the states. She gets first Lasix and is bred to relish the weeds for trainer Leonard Powell. Flavien Prat has the mount and winning 26% with his turf runners.

 

Race #10 – The G1 Pacific Classic – 1 1/4 – 9:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Maximum Security / #2 – Higher Power / #1 – Midcourt

#5 Maximum Security exits off a game win in the G2 San Diego with Abel Cedillo aboard for Bob Baffert. This was a tough race and he had to dig deep to score. He is 1 for 1 at Del Mar and seeking his 6th straight win. The last time he went a 1 1/4 was in the Kentucky Derby and he’d like to leave that day in the rear view mirror. Cedillo seemed to fit nicely last out and should relish the distance where he’ll be right near the lead. #2 Higher Power hails from the John Sadler barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. A solid stalker who is 2 for 2 ITM at DM and should get a perfect trip. Sadler wins 19% with graded stakes and has some sharp works to prepare. #1 Midcourt draws the rail post for John Sheriffs and Victor Espinoza. This son of Midnight Lute has speed and Espinoza wins 19% with early runners. He is 3 for 3 ITM at Del Mar and ran a very game 2nd to Maximum Security last out.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 15

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 15, 2020

by: Ed Meyer

Saratoga Race #8 – The $500,000 Saratoga Derby – 1 3/16 on the turf – 5:07 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Decorated Invader / #4 – Domestic Spending / #5 – Gufo

#2 Decorated Invader is a son of Declaration of War is seeking his 4th straight win and 3 for 3 ITM at the Spa. Joel Rosario in the saddle for Christophe Clement and 6 for 7 ITM on the turf. He’s a mid pack stalker who should enjoy a trip close to the rail. #4 Domestic Spending hails from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is a late runner with a wicked late punch. This is his 3rd off the layoff where the barn wins 20%. #5 Gufo comes in for Christophe Clement and John Velasquez. 2nd start off the layoff and seeks his 5th straight win. He’ll come calling late in the lane.

Race #9 – The G-1 Alabama – 1 1/4 miles – 5:43 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Bonny South / #5 – Swiss Skydiver / #1 -Envoutante

#4 Bonny South hails from the Brad Cox barn and has the services of Irad Ortiz. This is her 2nd off a layoff, and the daughter of Munnings looks to stalk the pace. Ortiz wins 22% with stalkers and should get a shot turning for home. #5 Swiss Skydiver is going to take a good deal of action at the windows and should be the pace setter for Kenny McPeek and Tyler Gaffalione. She is 7 for 8 ITM lifetime and exits the G2 Bluegrass facing the boys as the beaten favorite. That 2nd place finish was strong and my only knock is the distance they are travelling today. If she gets loose it could be lights out quick. #1 Envoutante is a Ken McPeek runner and can just off the pace with Jose Ortiz. He may be one of the most patient riders in the country and wins 20% with type of runner. That bullet work is hard to look past when making final decisions.

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Monmouth Park Race #10 – The $150,000 Pegasus – 1 1/16 miles – 5:12 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Pneumatic / #8 – Jesus’ Team / #2 – Big City Bob

#5 Pneumatic comes in for Steve Asmussen and Joe Bravo. This son of Uncle Mo can stalk the speed and pounce. His race in the G1 Belmont was solid facing tougher company. He cuts back in distance and should be one of the major players. #8 Jesus’ Team has the services of Paco Lopez who is winning 31% over the course. Look for a good turn of speed as this son of Tapiture cuts back in distance and drops down in class. #2 Big City Bob comes in for Jorge Duarte and Nik Juarez. He is 2 for 2 at Monmouth and can sit just off and make a move around the far turn. He’s been off for 5 months and may come back sharp and ready making his 2nd start of the year.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 8th Travers Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 8, 2020

by: Ed Meyer

Saratoga

Race #7 – The G-1 Ballerina – 7f – 3:42 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Pink Sands / #1 – Serengeti Empress / #4 – Bellafina

#6 Pink Sands is a daughter of Tapit for Shug McGaughey with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. She cuts back to 7f where she’s 6 for 8 ITM and sports a sharp work coming into the race. She’s a strong closer with a good late punch as Ortiz wins 22% with late runners. #1 Serengeti Empress comes in for Thom Amoss and Luis Saez aboard. She turns back from 9f and the barn wins 27% making a 2nd off the layoff run. She may improve at the shorter distance. #4 Bellafina is a daughter of Quality Road for Simon Callaghan has been knocking on the door and can make a solid late move. Jose Ortiz in the saddle and is winning 20% at the meet.

Race #10 – The G-1 Test – 7f – 5:39 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Gamine / #6 – Venetian Harbor / #2 – Perfect Alibi

#5 Gamine is a daughter of Into Mischief for Bob Baffert and John Velasquez in the irons. She’s a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime and sports a good turn of early speed. She won the G1 Acorn by 18 lengths and shows a bullet work to prepare. Very dangerous and the one to beat. #6 Venetian Harbor is a daughter of Munnings for Richard Baltas with Joel Rosario aboard. She’s been a beaten chalk the last two efforts and has very sharp speed. Cuts back in distance and should be a major player. #2 Perfect Alibi comes in for Mark Casse and Tyler Gaffalione. She’s a closer and exits the G1 Belmont off a very wide closing effort. She is a perfect 2 for 2 at the Spa.

Race #11 – The G-1 Travers – 1 1/4 – 6:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Tiz the Law / #4 – Max Player / #3 – Uncle Chuck

#6 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution seeking his 4th straight win. He’s a perfect stalker and a versatile sort who makes his own luck for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. He is 1 for 1 at the Spa and only been beaten by three quarters for a perfect record. He’s been off for 49 days and has a solid work tab. Very dangerous. #4 Max Player is a son of Honor Code for Linda Rice and Joel Rosario. A late runner who will come calling when the pace allows. He was 7 wide closing against the favorite last out. The distance should help his causes greatly. #3 Uncle Chuck is a son of Uncle Mo for Bob Baffert and Luis Saez. He’s 2 for 2 and a dangerous pace player. His victory in the G3 Los Al Derby was strong but only faced three others. Today is his acid test.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 1

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – August 1, 2020

by: Ed Meyer

Saratoga

Race #5 – The G-1 Personal Ensign – 1 1/8 – 3:28 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Midnight Bisou / #6 – Point of Honor / #1 – Abounding Joy

#3 Midnight Bisou is a daughter of Midnight Lute and hails from the Steve Asmussen barn. She is 3 for 3 ITM at the Spa and makes her 2nd start off a layoff where she stalked and pounced at CD in the G3 Fleur De Lis. Ricardo Santana in the irons and they score 15% as a team. She is perfect ITM at the distance and should be the one to beat. #6 Point of Honor comes from the George Weaver barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 ITM at Saratoga and is a long range closer. Her last race in the G1 Ogden Phipps just missed by a nose as the beaten chalk. #1 Abounding Joy is a daughter of Quality Road for Rudy Brisset. Jose Ortiz has the call and she is a perfect stalker drawing the rail where it is winning at 30%. Exits a strong effort winning the Iowa Distaff as she steps up in class today.

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Race #9 – The G-1 Whitney – 1 1/8 – 5:42 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 Code of Honor / #5 – Tom’s d’ Etat / #1 – By My Standards

#3 Code of Honor is a son of Noble Mission for Shug McGaughey with John Velasquez in the irons. He is 2 for 2 at the Spa with wins and a closing type. Johnny V wins with 20% of this type of runner, and his race in the G1 Metropolitan was a strong effort finishing third. It appeared he had more in the tank and should enjoy the extra eighth of a mile to run. #5 Tom’s d’ Etat hails from the Al Stall barn and has Joel Rosario in the irons 2nd off the layoff. He is 3 for 4 ITM at the Spa, ands seeks his fifth straight win. This son of Smart Strike is 7 for 9 ITM at the distance and a stalker. #1 By My Standards is a son of Goldencents for Bret Calhoun and Jose Ortiz. This is a 2nd off the layoff move drawing the rail where it is winning 30%. He’s had a good record this year and a logical choice to complete your exotics.

Race #10 – The G-1 H.A. Jerkins – 7f – 6:18 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – No Parole / #5 Mischievous Alex / #2 – Eight Rings

#6 No Parole is a speedy son of Violence for Thom Amoss and Luis Saez. This is his 2nd off the layoff and seeks his third win in a row. He’s a speedy fella and owns a bullet work to prepare. Catch him if you can. #5 Mischievous Alex is a stalker for John Servis and Irad Ortiz. He can lay just off the pace or take the lead if needed. He is 6 for 8 ITM lifetime. #2 Eight Rings comes from the Bob Baffert barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. This son of Empire Maker has speed and ships in from OP. This is 2nd start of the year and I’m looking for major improvement from his last race.

Race #11 – The G-2 Bowling Green – 1 3/8 on the turf – 6:50 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Sadler’s Joy / #1 – Marzo / #2 – Cross Border

#6 Sadler’s Joy comes in for Thom Albertrani and Javier Castellano. This son of Kitten’s Joy is 5 for 8 ITM over the course and is bred to love the turf. This is his 2nd start of the year and a fast closer. If there is any pace he’ll be rolling like a down bound train. #1 Marzo is a speedy sort for Mike Maker and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. The rail is winning at 30% and Ortiz wins 23% with his early style runners. #2 Cross Border hails from the Mike Maker barn with Jose Ortiz in the irons. A stalker who benefit from the early pace and move into contention before the late runners hit full stride. He’s won at the meet and is 4 for 4 with wins over the course. Major player for exotics.