Royal Ascot spot play – Day 3 – Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Wednesday was strange – my best bet (and actually the best bet for many people for the meeting) in Race 1 was terrible, and my other main selection in Race 3 was scratched because she refused to load.  It happens.

On Thursday there is a 2 year old race with a 4/5 ML favorite, and three races at a mile and a half or longer.  Today’s play will focus on a mile race limited to 3 year olds – The “Britannia Stakes.”

Race 5 – One mile limited to 3yo runners only (up to 30 horses can run, there will be a ‘mutuel field’ in the North American pool).  Purse = $187,000.  12:00 pm EDT

Top #5 Mutarakez     2nd #7 Sahaafy     3rd #10 Amazour     4th #13 Bow and Arrow

This race is pretty tough to figure; it’s hard to guess right in these races with huge fields.  I tried to stand with lightly raced horses that had good class numbers.  In general this field is a bit soft for Ascot.

I would not be too concerned about getting value, all of the above runners should be 6/1 or higher.  I thought #5 Mutarakez (7/1 ML) checked all the boxes.  His post will be close to the middle of the field, his trainer Brian Meehan is highly respected, the pedigree has some quality and he seems poised to make a jump into the “big time,” just having won a $91,419 handicap under similar conditions in his last start.  This will also be his 3rd start off a layoff, indicating he could reach a performance peak in this race.  Lastly he broke his maiden in an 18 horse field, so hopefully the 29 other horses in this race won’t crowd him too much.

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