Sept. 5th FRIDAY NIGHT Australian Horse Racing (U.S. Time)

Race 1B (Moonee Valley) – Top pick #7 COUNT ENCOSTA

On both the speed figure services I use #7 COUNT ENCOSTA’s last race was rated huge.  Can he do it again?

Tonight he’s stretching out from 10 furlongs to 12.5 furlongs, usually a good sign in Australia, and though he moves up in class he gets a light weight at 119 pounds (13 pounds less than the top weight).  Count Encosta has also run well at “the Valley,” a quirky track with very tight turns and only a 567 foot stretch (compare that to Melbourne’s leading track, Flemington, that has roughly an 1,800 foot stretch run).

Value?  Of the horses that have tun the 12.5 furlongs, #3 Crafty Cruiser seems to be in the sharpest form of the rest and is probably worth throwing in the exacta box with Count Ecosta.  Another horse I would cosider in the exacta and the trifecta would be #4 De Fine Lago, because his trainer, Robert (RW) Smerdon is infamous for brining home long shots and his horse has a very respectable record at the Valley:  8-2-4-0.

Good luck and good punting.

– Tony

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