Stakes Analysis for Caufield (11/15/13 USA time)

Caufield Race 6A – Zipping Classic (1 and 1/2 miles, 11:30 PM EST)

Picks:  1st) #1 Precedence  2nd) #4 Midsummer Sun  3rd) #3 Ransomed

I really like this race.  I think value can be had in the exotics.

There was talk of #1 PRECEDENCE going in the Melbourne Cup, but his connections did the right thing aiming for this spot.  Figures to be the favorite, but will be VERY hard to beat.  His last race was quite extraordinary.

#4 MIDSUMMER SUN keeps “thermonuclear hot” jockey Damien Oliver, and stretches out to a mile and a half, which should suit, being a British-bred son of ace distance sire Monsun (Monsun’s British-bred son Fiorente just won the 2 mile Melbourne Cup with Oliver in the saddle last week).  Midsummer Sun also made up a lot of ground in the stretch too, which usually bodes well in Australian racing.

#3 Ransomed was very respected in New Zealand, and their better horses tend to do well in the Australian races of a mile or longer.

Caufield Race 6A
Zipping Classic (1 and 1/2 miles)
Group 2, purse $326,000
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Post Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
1 Precedence (NZ) 4 Mid Consistent 55.0  3/1
3 Ransomed (NZ) 6 Back Effort dip 53.0  4/1
2 Sertorius 1 Mid Consistent 52.0  9/2
4 Midsummer Sun (GB) 2 Back Improving 50.0  7/1
8 Queenstown 8 On Lead Consistent 49.0  9/1
9 Kazanluk 10 Back Improving 49.0  9/1
6 Epingle 7 Back Consistent 46.0  31/1
7 Detox 9 Back Consistent 43.0
10 Miss Zenella (NZ) 5 Back Consistent 43.0
5 What’s In A Name 3 Mid Improving 38.0

 

Caufield Race 7A – Sandown Guineas (1 mile, 12:10 AM EST)

I don’t really like this race, as there is a lot of speed in this race, and Caufield is a track that favors closers.  If I had to make a pick I would go with #6 Apollo’s Choice or #4 Best Case if I could get 7/1 or better odds for my money.

Caufield Race 7A
Sandown Guineas(1 mile)
Group 2 (three year olds), purse $326,000
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Post Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
1 Paximadia 5 On lead Career top in last.  Needs the lead. 48.0  3/1
3 Equator 9 On lead Consistent 45.0  4/1
4 Best Case (NZ) 6 Mid Improving 43.0  5/1
6 Apollo’s Choice 11 Mid Improving, 3rd off the layoff 43.0  5/1
2 Champollion 8 Mid Consistent 37.0  14/1
8 Inafrenzy 2 Mid Improving, 3rd off the layoff 36.0  20/1
5 Pompeius 10 On lead Improving 35.0  33/1
7 Ryker 1 On lead Consistent, 3rd off the layoff 35.0  33/1
9 Gabble 3 Mid Improving, 3rd off the layoff 33.0
11 Outlandish 7 Back A maiden, but with better numbers. 33.0
10 De Lago Storm 4 Back A slow maiden in a group 2

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