Stay out of the HERD

by STRETCH

Dare to be different. If you find yourself hanging out with the “Herd of sheep” get out now. We all know favorites win around 30% of the time, we all know that most people lose at the races. So if you are with the majority you know where that puts you in the racing game.

Yes I was trying to get your attention. Let’s take a quick look back at Gulfstream’s Rainbow 6. Everyone was assuming there would be a huge mandatory payout on Monday, “The HERD.” One guy decided to go big and try and win it on the day before. Sure he is a huge bettor and bought the jackpot, but I like that he beat everyone else to the punch. Yes, myself included. I never like to be in with the sheep. I would not have won it on that Sunday but I did brush the Sunday off like most. It woke me up and should wake others up too.

You do not need to radically change your handicapping you just be aware of what the sheep are thinking. Here are a few examples:

-everyone is saying the horse can’t get the distance. They may be right but if the horse is a huge overlay it might be worth a risk.

-everyone watches the same replay and the horse was in huge trouble and gets over bet, now the horse lacks value and isn’t such a great bet

I am not saying do not bet any favorites or do not watch replays, but just be careful if everyone is saying the same thing you are. Favorites win and the herd wins from time to time too.

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