Sunday, Sept. 1st (Aussie 8/30 review)

Who’s Hot?

ATLANTIC JEWEL  The oft-injured super mare did not disappoint, winning her comeback in the 7 furlong (1400m) Group 1 Memsie Stakes on a nearly 18-month break by open lengths in hand.  She is undefeated, and her connections will try to stretch her out to the 10 furlong (2000m) distance of the Cox Plate (the Aussie version of the Breeders’ Cup Classic) over the next 8 weeks.

SUPER COOL and IT’S A DUNDEEL  Super Cool and It’s A Dundeel are both horses at their best from 2000m and longer, so not being that competitive against a sprinter/miler like Atlantic Jewel in the 1400m Memsie is not an overriding concern.  Super Cool had the cleaner trip, just missing second, but It’s A Dundeel showed more early speed before getting hopelessly blocked in the stretch as Atlantic Jewel was making the winning move.  In their next few races It’s A Dundeel may have more wager value, as many punters assume he can only win on the Sydney tracks, where they go clockwise, as compared to the Melbourne area tracks, where they go counter-clockwise.

PRINCE HARADA  Grandson of Fusaichi Pegasus came into Friday’s night action 2 for 2 against weaker sprinting, but in Friday’s race he was slammed near the winning post by a couple of horses, costing him a third win.  Aussie commentators expect this horse to stretch out to 1 mile (1600m) for the big money on offer during the Spring Carnival.

MARK KAVANAGH  Trains both Atlantic Jewel and Super Cool and is usually a force in the Aussie Spring races (September through mid-November).

Notable Track Bias  NOBODY could win on the front-end at Caufield, no matter how fast or slow the pace.  It might be a good idea playing speed horses that run back at Moonee Valley, as that track tends to favor speed more than any other Melbourne area track.  I would also look at speedy sprinters trying Flemington’s straight-course short sprints (from 5 furlongs/1000m to 6 furlongs/1200m) off disappointing Caufield efforts.

Picks Results through 8/30:

0 for 7 on 8/30 (0/9 overall, 2 for 9 in the money overall)… -$1.00 roi

 

 

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