Tag Archives: Belmont Stakes

Horse Racing Belmont Stakes Day Analysis – June 20

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 20 – Belmont Day

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #8 – The G1 Acorn Stakes – 1 mile – 4:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections: #4 – Casual / #1 – Gamine / #7 – Perfect Alibi

#4 Casual is a daughter of Curlin who’s a perfect 2 for 2 lifetime shipping in from CD. Steve Asmussen is the conditioner with his go-to rider, Ricardo Santana, in the saddle. She stretches out in distance from 7f and moves up in class getting the acid test. If her two races show anything she’ll be in mid flight ready to pounce. Her dam Lady Tak has 6 starters and 5 winners to her credit. #1 Gamine is also a perfect 2 for 2 coming in for Bob Baffert and John Velasquez in the irons. She’s a speedy type and has solid regular works. She’s been off 49 days and could be dangerous with the rail draw. #7 Perfect Alibi is a long range closer for Mark Casse and Irad Ortiz. She’s been off since the BC Juvenile Fillies and looks to relish the distance. Her dam No Use Denying has 5 starts and 5 wins to her credit. With a solid pace, she’ll come calling around the far turn under Ortiz.cash is king at betptc

Race #9 – The G1 Jaipur – 6f – Inner Turf – 4:53 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Pure Sensation / #5 – Stubbins / #3 – Texas Wedge

#4 Pure Sensation is a quick runner hailing from the Christophe Clement barn with Irad Ortiz. He ships in from SA from the BC Turf Sprint. He is 4 for 5 ITM at BEL and is 4 for 5 ITM at the distance. His style is pure speed getting added distance from 5f. Clement wins 19% with turf runners, and 15% with graded stakes. #5 Stubbins comes from the Doug O’Neill barn with Luis Saez getting the call. He’s been knocking on the door his last two efforts and gets six panels to come rolling. Saez wins 20% with his turf runners and 19% with closers. #3 Texas Wedge is a solid late runner from the Peter Miller barn with Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat. This son of Colonel John always comes running and the extra half furlong should help his causes greatly.

Race #10 – The G1 Belmont Stakes – 1 1/8 – 5:42 pm EDT 

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Tiz the Law / #2 – Solo Valante / #5 – Farmington Road

#8 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. His last win was the G1 Florida Derby two months ago and has been vacationing at Palm Meadows with a few works over the track. He has a stalking style and this could be Tagg’s next big horse. His record is 5 for 5 ITM lifetime and looks like a new penny. #2 Solo Valante hails from the Patrick Biancone barn. A strong closer with Luca Panici aboard had a solid prep at TBD winning easily. He comes from way back and the rider fits him like a glove. #5 Farmington Road is a son of Quality Road for the Todd Pletcher barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. The Todd Squad is having a great meet winning 28%, and his runner comes off a 49 day layoff since the G1 Arkansas Derby. He will be a good price and will come running late in the lane. He may be the perfect complement to your exotics or be the one who could upset the apple cart and light up the tote board.

Chrome Still Has Something to Prove

By Art Parker, author of ‘Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns’

There’s a lot of folks drinking the Kool-Aid. The California Chrome Kool-Aid. And they are serious. Since I have yet to sing his praises loudly with enthusiasm after the Preakness, it has resulted in the loss of friends and loss of friends that I didn’t have. I’ve been called worse names than a fat girl in a bikini contest. I’ve been told I was un-American for not spewing love and affection for Chrome. I like the colt and I love the story that tags along with him, but he still must prove he is as good as so many think he is. Thus far, I’m not buying it.

Before the Preakness I had my say and Chrome defeated a less than stellar field, which included runner-up Ride On Curlin, a colt that has never won a graded stakes. That detail was a repeat of the Derby. Commanding Curve, the Derby runner-up, has never won a graded stakes either. And there is no doubt that in Baltimore, Chrome had another perfect trip. Let’s face it, thus far California Chrome is as lucky as a pothead with a marijuana prescription.

Of course the real pain came when my friend Rich Nilsen declared Chrome as the next Triple Crown winner. Rich is the editor of agameofskill.com. Rich stole my line about the three year old crop being weak. There is no doubt about it – the crop of 2011 is terribly weak. But Rich did a great job at explaining one of the big reasons why, and that is the foal crop is much, much smaller. The last three Triple Crown winners were part of a larger foal crop than the one that produced our current three olds. The largest crops we’ve ever seen exceeded 50,000 foals, and those were years when Alysheba and Sunday Silence failed at Triple Crown bids. The crop that produced California Chrome is about one-third less in size than the one that produced I’ll Have Another, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2012.

Weak crop or not, it looks like there will be enough foes to fill the gate with potential spoilers at Big Sandy, the nickname for the Belmont Park main track. Chrome will be forced to get position, negotiate those colossal tiring turns and then hope there is enough left in the tank. And much of the field will have had more rest going into the race than Chrome.

As we say in the south, “You got to dance with the girl that brung ya,” and in horse racing you got to run with those in your generation. All you have to do to win the Triple Crown is beat those your own age. California Chrome has narrowed the Triple Crown task to a final race, so all he must do now is beat those that show up. It will still be a tough task.

And if Chrome pulls it off? It will be a great day for horse racing and a great day for sports.

And then, even doubters such as I will drink the Kool-Aid.