Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday – 11/7/2020
by: Ed Meyer for BetPTC.com
Breeders’ Cup / Keeneland / Day #2
Guaranteed pools – Pick-Five / $2 million – Pick-Four / $2 million
Race #8 – The G1 BC Sprint – 6f – 2:36 pm – Pick-Five
BetPTC.com Selections / #11 – Diamond Oops / #2 – C Z Rocket / #3 – Collusion Illusion
#11 Diamond Oops is one for one at KEE for Patrick Biancone and Florent Geroux in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff as they seek their 3rd straight win. Add in two straight bullet works and this son of Lookin At Lucky looks to come running in the final furlong. #2 CZ Rocket comes in for Peter Miller and Luis Saez. 3rd off the shelf and 2 for 2 at KEE. A stalker getting the rail trip allows for him to settle in and save ground. #3 Collusion Illusion hails from the Mark Glatt barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. 2nd off a layoff with a sizzling bullet work. He will be closing from far off the pace where Prat wins 27%.
Race #9 – The G1 BC Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 3:15 pm – Pick-Four
BetPTC.com Selections / #14 – Raging Bull / #11 – Ivar / #12 – Uni
#14 Raging Bull goes to post for Chad Brown with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 4 ITM at KEE, and this late runner has plenty of early pace to get him rolling late in the lane. Ortiz wins 20% with late running turf horses. #11 Ivar is 1 for 1 at KEE for Paulo Lobo and Joe Talamo. They exit a win in the G1 Shadwell Mile and can stalk just off the pace making the 3rd effort off a rest. #12 Uni hails from the Chad Brown barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. They are 2 for 3 ITM at KEE making a 3rd off the layoff move. They won their last race and the barn scores at 29% next time out.
Race #10 – The G1 Distaff – 1 1/8 – 3:54 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Monomoy Girl / #9 – Ollie’s Candy / #4 – Horologist
#10 Monomoy Girl hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. She won this race in 2018 and is 3 for 3 at the distance. She should get a closeup trip looking to keep the pace honest. Very dangerous to leave off your tickets. #9 Ollie’s Candy comes in for John Sadler and Joel Rosario. She’s been a bridesmaid the past two efforts and will be forwardly placed. Rosario wins 20% with early runners. #4 Horologist is trained by Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff looking for two in a row. The rider and trainer team up to win 28% as a team.
Race #11 – The BC Turf – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:33 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Magical / #3 – Tarnawa / #10 – Mogul
#2 Magical hails from the Aiden O’Brien yard with Ryan Moore in the irons. She ran on a deep track last out that’s not her preferred ground. Moore fits like a glove and she finished 2nd to Enable in 2018. Look for high gear around the final furlong. #3 Tarnawa is coming off a three in a row winning effort, and the distance fits her plans. She has a wicked late kick and very impressive. Dermot Weld and Christophe Soumillion team up together for a shot at the winner’s circle. #10 Mogul comes in from the Aiden O’Brien yard. They need solid ground and the weather is projected to be perfect in Kentucky, The distance looks to fit her perfectly.
Race #12 – The G1 BC Classic – 1 1/4 – 5:18 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Maximum Security / #8 – Improbable / #3 – By My Standards
#10 Maximum Security hails from the Bob Baffert barn with Luis Saez in the saddle. He’s been hitting on all cylinders this year and was a beaten favorite last out. Ever since the 2019 Derby, this colt has done very little wrong. #8 Improbable comes in for Bob Baffert and Irad Ortiz. Ships in from SA where they win 31% with new arrivals. Add in the bullet work and he may be dangerous seeking his 4th straight win. #3 By My Standards goes to post for Bret Calhoun and Gabriel Saez. 2 months off the layoff with red hot works show promise. This son of Goldencents always brings his top game rolling off the pace.