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BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Oct. 4-5th

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Fall Stars Weekend 

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland / Friday

Race #8 – The G2 Phoenix – 6f – 4:57 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Whitmore / #6 – Hog Creek Hustle / #7 – Promises Fulfilled

#3 Whitmore is from the Ron Moquette barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. Been off for three months and has an affinity for Keeneland, being 2 for 2 ITM. He lost by a nose in last year’s edition and sports some sharp works to prepare. This closer has real upsides as he fires very strong off the layoff. #6 Hog Creek Hustle is a son of Overanalyze for Vickie Foley. Corey Lanerie in the irons and he fits this deep closer like a glove. I’ve been watching this guy since February in the G2 Risen Star. He is maturing very nicely. #7 Promises Fulfilled is a son of Shackleford for Dale Romans and Luis Saez has the mount. A speedy colt who will ensure an honest pace. Add in he is 2 for 2 at Kee and he’s hard to dismiss.

Race #9 – The G1 Alcibiades – 1 1/16 – 5:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Perfect Alibi / #4 – Alandra / #9 – Sequin

#7 Perfect Alibi comes from the Mark Casse barn and Jose Ortiz is the pilot. A daughter of Sky Mesa who is 3rd off the layoff seeking her 3rd in a row.  She exits the G1 Spinaway, exchanging bumps but drawing away late. She should be a bit closer and pounce on the far turn with a quick turn of foot. Ortiz wins 21% with closing type runners. #4 Alandra is a daughter of Blame for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario. A speedy filly who won her only start. The distance should be no problem and her dam Altesse is a perfect 3 for 3 with her progeny. #9 Sequin is making the turf to dirt switch coming from Kyd for trainer Wesley Ward. Tyler Gaffalione has the call and has two very good place efforts. Ward spots his runners well and to drop a maiden in here could get you a square price. Both efforts were beaten chalk attempts and Ward can bring them ready.

 

Keeneland / Saturday

Race #7 – The G2 Thoroughbred Club of America – 6f – 4:29 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Chalon / #3 – Spiced Perfection / #4 – Danuska’ My Girl

#8 Chalon is a daughter of Dialed In for Arnaud Delacour and Paco Lopez. 3rd time off the layoff and she is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She missed by a nose last year in this race and should get a perfect stalking trip looking for payback. #3 Spiced Perfection comes from the barn of Peter Miller with Javier Castellano aboard. She’s been off 5 months working solid clips in the morning. The trainer wins 22% with sprinters and cuts back in distance to come calling late in the lane. #4 Danuska’s My Girl is a daughter of Shackleford for Jerry Hollendorfer and the turf master Flavien Prat winning 24% on the sod. She’s a speedy gal shipping in from the left coast. Prat taking the mount makes her dangerous on the lead.

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Race #8 – The G1 First Lady Stakes – 1 mile on the turf – 5:04 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Vasilika / #7 – Indian Blessing / #11 – Rushing Fall

#6 Vasilika comes from the Hollendorfer barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. She cuts back to a mile and can give plenty of grey hairs watching her come flying in the shadow of the wire. Her late kick is ultra impressive and the barn wins 21% making a 3rd off the layoff move. Prat will have her high gear turning for home. #7 Indian Blessing comes from the Ed Walker yard with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Two back they shipped over from Germany and then came rolling late to be bested by a dirty nose in the G-2 Ballston Spa. Look for her silks in the final yards down the lane. #11 Rushing Fall is a speedy gal for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano teaming up. She’s been off for two months and been working a regular morning clip. Castellano wins 21% with speedsters and he’ll drop over from the outside post to find a comfy position to save some ground. If she can grab the lead around the far turn she could be very dangerous.

 

Race #9 – The G1 Breeders’ Futurity – 1 1/16 – 5:39 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Gouverneur Morris / #1 – Tapit It to Win / #2 – By Your Side

#10  Gouverneur Morris is a son of Constitution who wins 24% of his firsters. They won by nine handily at Saratoga and have been working lights out. He’s a stalking sort and look for Castellano to have him in the catbird seat by the halfway point. I’m looking for a strong late punch and a trip to the Breeders’ Cup. #1 Tapit It to Win is a son of Tapit for Mark Casse and Tyler Gaffalione. They switched from turf to dirt and he won like a good thing. His bullet work shows promise that all systems are go as they get added ground going two turns. #2 By Your Side is a son of Constituition for trainer Eddie Kennealy and Corey Lanerie. He was 2 for 2 and then caught a sloppy track in the G-1 Hopeful. Toss that race and you’ll see a colt give a game effort.

 

Race #10 – The G1 Shadwell Turfwell Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 6:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #12- Suedois / #6 – Admission Office / #4 – Valid Point.

#12 Suedois comes from the David O’Meara yard with Jamie Spencer aboard. He is 1 for 1 at Kee and took home $600k from that score in Lexington. This son of Le Harve (IRE) gets Lasix as he’ll be looking for his spot mid pack by the first turn. He’s game and Spencer is a world class rider. #6 Admission Office is a son of Point of Entry for Bryan Lynch and Jose Ortiz. He’s been off for 3 months and is a strong closer. He had a solid allowance win over the track and today is his test making another step up the class ladder. He was a beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to score 22% looking to turn the tables. #4 Valid Point is a son of Scat Daddy for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Been away from the races 56 days and was ultra impressive winning the G-1 Secretariat.

Graded Stakes Preview / Saturday, September 16, 2017

BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs

9/16/17

Race #10 – The G3 Iroquois – 1 1/16 – 5:20 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections – #2 – Hollywood Star / #1 – Ten City / #7 – Flameaway

#2 – Hollywood Star = Robby Albarado in the saddle for Dale Romans. 2-yr-old son of Malibu Moon and won his Mdn start at CD and came back to run a game effort in the G2 Saratoga Special. His numbers are strong and exits off a sparkling work at CD. I’m thinking there may some distance questions down the road but the 1 1/16 in definitely in his scope. #1 – Ten City =Jack Gilligan aboard for Kenny McPeek and the trainer was quoted as saying “this may be one of the most talented runners he has trained.” – His last effort at Ellis was surprising as a beaten chalk who goes from 7f to 1 1/16. Should get a good stalking trip close to the rail. #7 – Flameaway = Julien Leparoux in the irons for Mark Casse. The barn has faced some tough Euro-turf runners. This son of Scat Daddy is 2/2, and the distance should not be a problem. I went back and watched his last replay and it may be better than the results may tell. I like his chances today.

Race #11 – G2 Pocahontas – 1 1/16 – 5:50 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections – #3 – Snowfire / #8 – Sunny Skies / #10 – Upset Brewing

#3 – Snowfire = Daughter of Tapit for the Mark Casse barn. Julien Leparoux in the saddle and owns an impressive maiden win at CD with a troubled trip at Saratoga in the G3 Schuylerville. She looks to rebound off a beaten favorite trip (24%) and Leparoux has been on-fire going 14/23 the past week. Julien may be staying in Louisville looking for a gal to take to the big dances coming up. #8 – Sunny Skies = Robby Albarado in the saddle for Ken McPeek and 1/1 at CD. McPeek wins (20%) going sprint to a route and this daughter of Animal Kingdom may be a major player. #10 – Upset Brewing = 2/2 ITM at CD for trainer “Buff” Bradley. She always brings her best and owns a razor sharp work coming back to Louisville. Look for an up-close stalking trip ready to pounce.

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Woodbine

9/16/17

Race #8 – G2 Canadian – 1 1/8 on the turf -4:29 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections – #5 – Elysea’s World / #1 – Quidara / #5 – Starship Jubilee

#5 – Elysea’s World = Jose Ortz in the saddle for Chad Brown = (39%). Daughter of Champs Elysees and she should relish the lush greensward. Her dam Ideal has 4 starts with 4 turf winners and is making her 3rd off the layoff move and adding distance. She could fit the race with a well timed Ortiz ride. #1 – Quidara = Daughter of Dubawi and looks to be the one to beat from the Motion barn. Junior Alvarado aboard and she exits the G1 Diana at Saratoga bested by a head from the turf monster Lady Eli. The race goes through this filly if you want the winner. #5 – Starship Jubilee = 2nd off the layoff move and cuts back in distance from 1 3/8. She’s locked horns with the boys in the G2 Sky Classic and is a close-up stalker in the hands of Eurico Da Silva.

Race #10 – The G1 Northern Dancer – 1 1/2 on the turf – 5:31 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections – #4 – Messi / #8 – Hawkbill / #5 – Pumpkin Rumble

#4 – Messi = Jose Ortiz in the irons for Graham Motion. He is 1/1 at Woodbine and been in the shelf for 57 days. He should be forwardly placed and Ortiz is an excellent judge of pace. Solid work tab and well-rested runners do well for the barn (19%). #8 – Hawkbill = Colm O’Donoghue for Charles Applebee. This is a son of Kitten’s Joy and gets Lasix shipping in from Group 1 company in Germany. He is 8/13 ITM on turf and faced some very tough Euro turfers. He is 3/3 ITM at the distance and should be mid-pack today. #5 – Pumpkin Rumble = Speedy son of English Channel who should be the pace setter. Jesse Campbell in the irons and 2/3 ITM going this distance.

Race #12 – G1 Woodbine Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 6:34 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections – #6 – Deauville / #8 – Mondialiste / #1 – World Appeal

#6 – Deauville = Jamie Spencer for Aidan O’Brien. They bring a son of Galileo exiting the Arlington Million as a beaten favorite. Spencer takes over for Ryan Moore and they cut back from 1 1/4 – 1 mile and a shot at a qualifying spot for the Breeders’ Cup. He’s run well on this side of the pond and lesser distance could play into his plans. #8 – Mondialiste = Jose Ortiz in the irons for David O’Meara. 1/1 at Woodbine and the Lasix sure helped his causes in the past. He is 9/16 ITM at the distance and been off since York in late August. #1 – World Appeal = John Velasquez for Mark Casse and exits a strong win in the G1 FourStarDave. Casse comes into the race loaded, and a stalking trip just off the pace might be in the cards.