BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, May 21, 2022 – Preakness Day

by: Ed Meyer

Pimlico 

Race #8 – The G2 Dinner Party – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 2:49 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #3 – Set Piece / #2 – Novo Sol / #6 -Atone

#3 Set Piece is a late running son of Dansili (GB) for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux in the saddle. He drops from the G1 level and has a wicked late punch in the lane. Ships in from KEE and makes his 2nd start off a layoff. He is eligible to improve 2nd off, and the bullet work shows readiness. The rider and trainer win 22% as a team and his dam Portodora has 8 starters, 7 winners, 6 turf winners. The drop into G2 land and 2nd off have me ready to watch his late kick as they make the turn for home. #2 Novo Sol hails from the Saffie Joseph barn with Junior Alvarado getting the call. Three back he was running in Brazil and comes off a 49 day rest. He turns back in distance and ran a decent effort last out. The bullet work at Palm Meadows really catches your eye. #6 Atone is a stalker from the Mike Maker barn with Irad Ortiz getting the mount. 2nd off the layoff from KEE in the G1 Makers Mile Turf dropping down for a little class relief. This gelding looks to be in a solid cycle and may get a bigger piece if a clean trip is in the cards.

Race #9 – The G3 Chick Lang – 6f – 3:31 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #7 – Whelen Springs / #1 – Cogburn / #9 – Little Vic

#7 Whelen Springs hails from the John Ortiz barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Street Sense is a bit of a late bloomer; picking up Ortiz in the saddle will help his chances greatly. Ortiz wins 21% with sprinters. #1 Cogburn is a blistering speedster from the Steve Asmussen barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and dropping Lasix will put him in a good spot as the rail wins 20%. #9 Little Vic has plenty of early foot for Juan Avila and Paco Lopez who wins 22% on the lead.  2nd off the break, and I love the red hot bullet work.

Race #13 – The G1 Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 – 7:01 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #8 – Epicenter / #1 – Simplification / #4 – Secret Oath

#8 Epicenter hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Joel Rosario getting the call. He looked like a winner in the Derby but the suicidal fractions can take a toll. He’ll be right out there keeping the beat for the pace if it gets too slow or layoff a bit if it gets hot. He had a nice maintenance work and just needed rest to come back and show why he is the chalk. The barn comes back to win 25% off a beaten favorite effort. I’m looking for a big show today. #1 Simplification is a stalker with the rail draw for Antonio Sano and John Velasquez. His race in the Derby wasn’t bad all things considered. He’ll be closer to the leaders and should make a move before the quarter pole. #4 Secret Oath is a powerful young lady from the D Wayne Lukas barn with Luis Saez aboard. Her Oaks win was impressive, but she’s gonna need some heat on the front end. She is 7 for 8 ITM and faced the boys in the G1 Arkansas Derby. I love her against the ladies, but she’ll need the perfect trip in the second jewel. If a pace sets her in motion, she can put out the lights quickly.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Friday, May 20, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Pimlico

Race #12 – The G3 Pimlico Special – 1 3/16 miles dirt – 5:10 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #8 – First Captain / #1 – Vindictive / #6 – Capocostello

#8 First Captain is a stalking son of Curlin for Shug McGaughey and Luis Saez in the saddle. 3rd start off the layoff and adds blinkers today. Three straight bullet works and the equipment change have me feeling they are in top gear; adding Saez seals the deal. He is 5 for 6 ITM lifetime and should be much closer to the pace. The rider wins 19% with stalkers and Shug wins 20% with graded stakes. One of the bullet works was on a muddy track and this gives me more confidence in his ability. #1 Vindictive is coming off a 56 day break from the races for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Uncle Mo has bounced up and down the class ladder and still has an attractive look of  runner who will relish the ground with a rail trip. They could be setting up his stable mate Untreated who is a long range closer, but I’m not sold on the other part of the Todd Squad. Vindictive looks the part and has the feel of a runner ready for a top effort. #6 Capocostello is a late runner for Fausto Gutierrez with Flavien Prat in the driver’s seat. Three back he was in Panama and doing well. He just ran a game effort in the G3 Ghostzapper and should be able to handle the distance. The barn wins 28% with graded stakes and Prat wins 21% going a route of ground. He’s coming off a 48 day break and should be fresh and ready. Look for a late run on the far turn.

Race #13 – The G2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 – 5:44 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #10 – Adare Manor /#7 – Distinctly Possible / #11 – Radio Days

#10 Adare Manor is a speedy daughter of Uncle Mo and makes her 2nd start off the layoff for Sean McCarthy and John Velasquez. She ships in from California and ran a lights out effort in the G2 Santa Anita Oaks. Since shipping from Baffert to Tim Yakteen she was a bridesmaid by a neck and sports a bullet work. She is the one to beat, and with sunny skies in the forecast she could leave them in her wake. Since Johnny V took over for Umberto Rispoli he seems to fit her well. I think she may be more versatile than her past efforts show, and watching the replay of her last effort gives me plenty of reasons to make her my key. #7 Distinctly Possible is a lightly raced daughter of Curlin for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She has been knocking on the door every effort even though it was her maiden break after running big in the G1 Alcibiades. She drops the Lasix in the stake and should make a big run late with all the pace. #11 Radio Days is a daughter of the red hot sire Gun Runner. She has plenty of late kick for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario in the saddle. She runs honest each outing and looks to be maturing at the right time. You have to love the price, don’t leave her out of your exotics.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, May 7, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #3 – The G2 Sheepshead Bay – 1 3/8 on the turf – 1:33 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #5 Virginia Joy / #3 Sister Otoole / #1 Luck Money

#5 Virginia Joy is a late runner from the Chad Brown barn with Trevor McCarthy getting the nod. She is 3 for 3 at the distance and Team Brown knows just how to put his horses in the right spots. She comes off a two month layoff with some very nice works. #3 Sister Otoole hails from the Graham Motion barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. This is her 2nd time off the layoff and she should relish the distance. Her style is to come from off the pace and get rolling down the lane. A quick pace fits her style best.  #1 Luck Money is a late runner for Arnaud Delacour and Hector Diaz. She has been away for five months but her last race showed more promise than on paper. Diaz wins 13% with turf closers and perks my betting interest rolling down the stretch.

Race #8 – The G2 Fort Marcy – 1 1/8 on the turf – 4:19 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #5 Sacred Life / #6 Rockemperor / #7 Doswell

#5 Sacred Life is a strong closer for Chad Brown with Hector Diaz aboard. 2nd time off the layoff and adds blinkers today. The barn wins 19% on the equipment change and Team Brown delivers at a 22% with graded stakes. Chad Brown has been 9 for 13 the past two weeks ITM. #6 Rockemperor hails from the Chad Brown barn shipping in from the left coast under Dylan Davis. He is 5 for 7 ITM at Belmont and cuts back in distance where he is 5 for 5 ITM going 9f. Look for a strong late kick coming off a 5 month break. #7 Doswell is a stalker from the Barclay Tagg barn with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. He’s been off 3 months since the G1 Pegasus World Turf where he set the pace and got leg weary down the lane. Carmouche is an excellent speed rider winning 18% and I’m looking for a an up close trip.

Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G3 Senorita – 1 mile on the turf – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #1 Lucky Girl / #5 Delmona / #3 Island of Love

#1 Lucky Girl is a late runner for Richard Baltas and Ramon Vazquez. She was the odds on favorite last out and was bothered at the break and forced to change game plans. Toss out that effort and she can come flying when the real running begins. Since coming over from Ireland in July she has improved with every start. Blats comes back at a 32% clip to turn the tables off a beaten chalk effort and Vazquez moved out to California from the Kentucky. He should start making his mark as he is an excellent reinsman. #5 Delmona has a good late punch since arriving from the Curragh in Ireland three efforts back in September. Jeff Mullins is the conditioner and Tyler Baze has the call. She stretches out from sprinting, and I think we’ll see her much closer today. She is 2 for 2 ITM at SA only a head short of making it two in a row. #3 Island of Love has plenty of early speed for Phil D’Amato and J.J. Hernadez in the irons. Hernandez wins 23% with his early speed turf runners.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, April 30, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita

Race #6 – The G2 Californian – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #3 – Express Train / #1 – Spielberg / #4 – Shaaz

#3 Express Train is a son of Union Rags and stalking type for John Sheriffs and Victor Espinoza. He’s been away for 56 days and seeks his fourth straight victory. He has been training well and fires well off the layoff. Add in he is 9 for 10 ITM at SA and he looks the one to beat today. #1 Spielberg is a late running son of Union Rags for trainer Sean McCarthy. Abel Cedillo has the call, and he comes over from the Bob Baffert barn. He has some solid works and the rail draw.  #4 Shaaz is a lightly raced son of Uncle Mo who also comes from the Baffert barn for Sean McCarthy. He is lightly raced, but his efforts have the look of something special. He has Money Mike Smith in the irons and a bullet work after a nice win. Definitely a contender not to be taken lightly.

Race #10 – The G2 Santa Margarita – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 8:30 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #3 – Blue Stripe / #9 – Miss Bigly / #4 – Park Avenue

#3 Blue Stripe is an Argentinian bred whose last race was the G1 BC Distaff. She comes off a five month break and her 2nd start in the states. She is 6 for 7 ITM lifetime and has beaten the boys in a handicap event. Tyler Baze gets the nod for Marcelo Polanco and should be watched closely in the saddling area. #9 Miss Bigly is a stalker from the Phil D’Amato barn with Ramon Vazquez in the saddle. The rider has been doing well since hanging his tack in California, and I think we’ll see good things to come. She comes off a 56 day break, and is 4 for 4 ITM at SA with a bullet work to prepare on the class drop.  #4 Park Avenue hails from the John Sadler barn with J.J. Hernadez in the saddle. She makes the turf to dirt switch and is 3 for 4 ITM over the course. She moves up in class and may show more speed than usual today.

Race #11 – The G2 Charles Whittingham – 1 1/4 on the turf – 9:00 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #4 – Dicey Mo Chara / #6 – Masterofoxhounds / #5 – Gold Phoenix

#4 Dicey Mo Chara is a stalker from the Leonard Powell barn with Drayden Van Dyke in the irons. He comes off a 49 day break and is 3 for 5 ITM over the track and cuts back in distance today. Powell is winning 25% and has a sharp work under his belt in preparation. #6 Masteroffoxhounds is a son of War Front for Richard Baltas and J.J. Hernandez. He is 3 for 3 ITM at SA and makes his 2nd start off the layoff. He’s faced some tough competition in the G1 arena and the drop in class should be welcome. He is 2 for 3 ITM at the distance and should be right near the front. #5 Gold Phoenix is a lightly raced son of Belardo (IRE) and is 3 for 4 lifetime since shipping over from Wolverhampton. Kyle Frey gets the nod for Phil D’Amato and is getting the acid test today moving up the class ladder. This is a stake and he will have to go without Lasix, but we’ll see what he is made of when Frey steers him for home.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, April 23, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland

Race #8 – The G3 Ben Ali – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 4:44 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #5 – Warrant / #7 – Scalding / #3 – Proxy

#5 Warrant is a closing son of Constitution for Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. He comes off a 49 day layoff and is 1 for 1 ITM at KEE. Prat and Cox are winning 43% as a team and this colt is in good hands going to post today. #7 Scalding is a son of Nyquist looking for his fourth straight win for Shug McGaughey and Javier Castellano in the irons. He is a stalker that should be closer to the pace today with the added distance. Rider and trainer are winning 24% in the past month. #3 Proxy is a late running son of Pulpit for Mike Stidham and B.J. Hernadez. This is his 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 17% and has improved with each start this year.

Race #9 – The G2 Elkhorn – 1 1/2 on the turf – 5:16 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #4 – Phantom Currency / #5 – Channel Maker / #9 – Another Mystery

#4 Phantom Currency is a speedy son of Goldencents for Brian Lynch and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Ortiz wins 27% with speedy runners on the turf and seeks his fourth win coming into the race. The rider will send from the break and attempt to secure a rail spot to dictate the pace. #5 Channel Maker is a son of English Channel for Bill Mott and Luis Saez. He’s been off for five months since the BC Turf and could be pressed by Phantom Currency from the break. Very talented with tons of class, but may have a bumpy trip vying for the lead and setting up a closers pace if things get too hot. Still to be respected when putting together exotics. #9  Another Mystery is a fast closing son of Temple City for Chris Block and Flavien Prat. This is his 2nd start of the year and Prat is on fire winning 25% at the meet and 29% with his turf mounts. If the pace gets hot, Prat can mow them down at a square price.

Aqueduct

Race#8 – The $200,000 New York Stallion Series – 6 1/2f – 5:04 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #2 -Barese / #1 – Unique Unions / #4 -Mo Dancin

#2 Barese exits the G2 Wood Memorial for Mike Maker and Dylan Davis aboard. They take a huge class drop back in aginst state bred competition and can lay just off the pace and pounce. This is a nice son of Laoban and will be the one to beat today. #1 Unique Unions is a speedster for Richard Schosberg and Manny Franco in the irons. He will grab the lead from the rail draw and coming off a three month layoff may have him fresh and ready to upset the field. #4 Mo Dancin is a lightly raced son of Laoban for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano. He cuts back in distance and should be in mid flight watching the pace unfold. He’s going to have to bring his best game to be a part of the action.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, April 2, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race#9 – The G2 Pan American – 1 1/2 miles on the turf – 3:37 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #3 – Gufo / #5 – Abaan / #2 -Mid Day Image

#3 Gufo is a late runner from the Christophe Clement barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. He’s been off 4 months since the BC Turf and is a perfect 3 for 3 at GP. He is 3 for 4 ITM at the distance and takes the blinkers off today. His late kick will grab your attention at the top of the lane and should be tough when the real running begins. #5 Abaan hails from the Todd Pletcher barn and Luis Saez is aboard this stalker. If the pace is slow he’ll be on the engine, and if quicker he’ll be right in the second seat waiting. He was beaten chalk last out and the Todd Squad wins 28% looking for payback. #2 Mid Day Image is a speedy son of Midshipman and Paco Lopez in the driver’s seat. He is 6 for 7 ITM at GP and can be dangerous if left alone on the lead.

Race#12 – The G2 Gulfstream Oaks – 1 1/16 – 5:17 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #7 – Kathleen O / #5 – Goddess of Fire / #3 – Amani’s Image

#7 Kathleen O is a late running daughter of Upstart for Shug McGaughey with Javier Castellano in the irons. She is a perfect 3 for 3 with two straight wins at GP. She gets added ground to close and her win in the G2 Davona Dale turned some heads. #5 Goddess of Fire ships in from FG for trainer Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez. She’ll need to bump up her game a notch to seal the deal, as Saez and Pletcher win 14% as a team and 21% coming third off the layoff. #3 Amani’s Image is a late runner of Tapit and 2 for 3 ITM at GP. She is 2nd off the layoff where she wins 20%. Jose Ortiz is the reinsman and the trainer wins 50% with graded stakes.

Race#14 – The G1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:38 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #2 – Classic Causeway / #7 – White Abarrio / #6 – Charge It

#2 Classic Causeway hails from the Bryan Lynch barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Speedy son of Giant’s Causeway and should be dangerous on the hook with Ortiz who wins 26% with early runners. This is his 3rd off the layoff with a sharp work to ready for the race. #7 White Abarrio is a Saffie Joseph trainee with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. He looks to be maturing with every run and I’m looking for a  stalking trip to put him in the catbird seat. Tyler G won the G3 Holy Bull last out impressively and looks to keep the streak moving along. #6 Charge It is a speedy son of Tapit for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez. He is 2 for 2 ITM at GP and sports a pair of bullet works for the race. Pletcher has been 7 for 10 the past week with his runners.

BetPTC.com Analysis – Saturday, March 19, 2022

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race#9 – The $100,000 Cicada – 6f – 5:32 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #5 – Monshun / #4 – Lady Milagro / #2 – Sweet Solare

#5 Monshun is a speedy filly who hails from the Ray Handal barn with Dylan Davis in the irons. She broke her maiden at Saratoga and did it in impressive style. 7 month layoff and a bevy of works over the deep Belmont training track could have her ready to fire at first asking. She was well bet in debut and I’m looking for more of the same from the betting public. #4 Lady Milagro is a speedy daughter of First Dude and has Eric Cancel aboard. She is 4 for 4 ITM over the AQU surface and her dam Tribecky has 4 starters and winners to her credit. #2 Sweet Solare is a stalker from the Horacio DePaz barn with the hot hand of Trevor McCarthy in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 ITM at Aqueduct and DePaz has had 2 wins from 3 starts the past two weeks.

Gulfstream Park

Race#6 – The $100,000 Any Limit – 6f – 3:01 pm

BetPTC.com Analysis / #6 – Strategic Bird / #4 – One Identity /#5 – Spirit Wind

#6 Strategic Bird hails from the Mark Casse barn with Edwin Gonzalez in the irons. She has a quick break from the gate and turns back in distance from 7f at Tampa Bay where she was the beaten chalk. She has been off for two months and is eligible to improve by dropping her Lasix and getting back to the place where she broke her maiden by 12 lengths. #4 One Identity is a stalker from the Pleasa barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. She is a perfect 2 for 2 in Hallandale and will pick up a pilot who scores with 21% of stalking style runners. #5 Spirit Wind is a quick filly who will come out ready to run from the break for Ralph Nicks and Tyler Gafflione. They are moving up in class and the barn has 5 out of 8 runners ITM the past two weeks.

Race#11 – The $100,000 Hutcheson Stakes – 6f – 5:42 pm 

BetPTC.com Analysis / #5 – Provocateur / #7 – Cattin / #4 – Nitrous Channel

#5 Provocateur hails from the Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz getting the nod. She’s quick from the break and cuts back in distance from 7f. He’s been off for two months and the rider and trainer are winning 29% as a team. He should improve fresh off the bench with a sharp work under his belt. #7 Cattin is a late runner for trainer Ralph Nicks and Emisael Jaramillo in the saddle. He drops a notch in class and was a beaten favorite last out. The rider wins 22% with sprinters. #4 Nitrous Channel is a late runner for George Weaver and Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. This son of Nyquist was well bet in debut and did not disappoint by drawing off at the end with more in the tank. Rider and trainer team up to win 20% as a team and should hold his own with a sharp work to send him to the starting gate.