Tag Archives: Graded Stakes Preview

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Jan. 4 – BetPTC.com

BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #7 – The G-3 Kitten’s Joy – 7 1/2f on turf – 3:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Island Commish / #9 – Summer to Remember / #2- Irish Miss

#8 Island Commish comes from the barn of Joe Saffie and steps up in class after a 45 day layoff. He seeks his 3rd straight with Paco Lopez in the saddle. Lopez wins 27% of his turf mounts and is three for three ITM on the green. A stalker who should be in good hands as Lopez wins 27% of his stalkers just off the pace. #9 Summer to Remember is a son of Summer Front for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez in the irons. He was impressive winning at GP and is 2 for 2 ITM on the turf. He should be close to pace and is 1 for 1 ITM over the course. #2 Irish Miss is a son of Sky Mesa for Graham Motion and Rajiv Maragh in the saddle. He cuts back in distance and should benefit on this move.

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Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G-3 Sham – 1 mile – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Authentic / #4 – Azul Coast / #5 – Scoring

#1 Authentic comes from the barn of Bob Baffert. He was impressive wining at DM under Drayden Van Dyke coming off a 56 day layoff. The barn wins 28% off a brief layoff. He gets the acid test and should be close from the break. #4 Azul Coast comes from the Bob Baffert barn and is a son of Super Saver. Joel Rosario gets the call and the  barn wins 28% with dirt runners. He will be rolling late in the lane. #5 Scoring is a son of Justin Phillips who was put up in a DQ his first outing. Abel Cedillo gets the nod and wins 24% with route runners. He makes the jump from 4 1/2f to a mile and should be placed in mid pack. His dam High Heeled Hope has 12 starters, 10 winners, and 2 stakes winners to her credit.


Race #8 – The G-2 San Gabriel – 1 1/8 on turf – 6:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Cleopatra’s Strike / #4 – Overdue / #6 – Majestic Eagle

#3 Cleopatra’s Strike is a son of Smart Strike for Phil D’Amato. He is a long range closer who is 2 for 2 ITM over the course. The barn wins 21% 2nd time off the layoff. He faced some tough runners and should be making a solid run as they turn for home. #4 Overdue comes from the Phil D’Amato barn making his 2nd start off the layoff. Mike Smith gets the nod and and cuts back in distance today. #6 Majestic Eagle comes in for Neil Drysdale and is 8 for 10 ITM over the course. This son of Medaglia d’ Oro is a solid closer Rafael Bejarano in the irons is a plus.

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Dec 14

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #6 – The G3 Sugar Swirl – 6f – 2:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Lady’s Island / #3 – A Bit of Both / #6 – Stormy Embrace

#4 Lady’s Island comes from the Georgina Baxter barn winning 33% at the meet. She is 7 for 7 ITM at GP and seeks her 5th win in a row. She’s been on the shelf for 45 days and sports a quick turn of foot from the break. She makes the turf to dirt switch and has a sharp work to prepare for Emisael Jaramillo. #3 A Bit of Both is the daughter of Paynter for Jason Servis and Paco Lopez aboard. This is her 3rd off the layoff and the barn wins 26% on this move. She’s a solid stalker and 5 for 5 ITM at GP. Look for her up close tracking the leader. #6 Stormy Embrace comes in for trainer Kathleen O’Connell and is 10 for 13 over the strip. She cuts back from 7f and has the services of Luis Saez. Look for a stalking trip in mid pack and Saez to cut her loose at the top of the lane.

Race #8 – The G3 Rampart – 1 mile – 3:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Baccarat Fashion / #7 – Pink Sands / #3 – Molto Bella

#9 Baccarat Fashion comes from the barn of Peter Walder winning 29% at the meet shooting for three in a row. She’s been off for 51 days and sports a sharp workout. She’s a stalker with Albarado in the irons. #7 Pink Sands is a long range closer for Shug McGaughey. This daughter of Tapit is 2 for 3 ITM at GP and goes from a sprint to a route where they win 24%. Jose Ortiz is in the driver’s seat. #3 Molto Bella comes in for Ian Wilkes and B.J. Hernadez in the saddle. A mid pack stalker shipping in from CD and gets added distance to run at today. 

Race #9 – The G2 Ft. Lauderdale – 1 1/8 on the turf – 4:00 pm EDT 

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Channel Cat / #8 – Admission Office / #7 – Cross Border

#5 Channel Cat is a son of English Cat for Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez. He is 4 for 5 ITM over the course and ships in from SA in the BC Turf. The drop in class and brief rest may have this closer in top order. Pletcher is off to a great start at the meet and winning 50%. #8 Admission Office is a son of Point of Entry. This is his 3rd off the layoff where Brian Lynch wins 19% and his last race was a good indicator of things to come. #7 Cross Border comes in for trainer Mike Maker and ships down from AQU off a win. He’s a mid pack closer and Saez wins 19% with closers.

Race #10 – The G-3 Harlan’s Holiday – 1 1/16 – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Prince Lucky / #3 – Red Crescent / #5 – War Story

#1 Prince Lucky is a speedy gelding for Todd Pletcher. John Velasquez draws the mount and gets the rail. He’s been off 49 days and the trainer has been red hot the past two weeks going 6 for 8 ITM. Catch him if you’re going to beat him. #3 Red Crescent is a son of Overdriven and has Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. He’s a mid pack stalker and should get a solid pace to monitor. #5 War Story comes in for Elizabeth Dobles and has a good deal of early speed. Luis Saez gets the nod and will have to do battle with Lucky Prince. He’s faced some tough players and can easily bring his “A” game to the table.


BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – 12/15/18

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #8 – The G3 Rampart – 1 mile – 3:34 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Electric Forest / #3 – Tapa Tapa Tapa / #2 – Tweeting

#1 Electric Forest is a daughter of Curlin for the Chad Brown barn.  Jose Ortiz has the call and they are winning 20% as a team. She draws the rail and goes from a sprint to a route as the barn scores 30% on the move. She goes from 7f to a mile and is a perfect stalker. Her two wins from three races are strong and her only loss was a troubled trip leaving the gate. She’ll get a good seat along the rail and get in the action around the far turn. #3 Tapa Tapa Tapa gets the services of Javier Castellano for trainer Tim Hamm. She’s been off for 7 months and has been working bullets in the morning. Her last effort in the G3 Doubledogdare at Keeneland may be a good prep. She has tactical speed and gets a rider change to the high percentage Castellano. #2 Tweeting is a daughter of Uncle Mo for trainer Jorge Navarro winning 18%. Albin Jimenez gets the nod and has tons of early foot. She’s been off for two months and may improve going back to a route from 7f. This is her third off the layoff and moves up in class. Catch her if you can.

Race #9 – The G3 My Charmer – 1 mile on the turf – 4:05 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – La Moneda / #8 – Capla Temptress / #7 – Cherry Lodge

#6 La Moneda is a New York bred looking town 5th race from 6 starts. John Velasquez has the call for Thomas Morley and she’s a stone cold closer. There’s a change of riders to Johnny V and she’s been on the shelf for 56 days. She cuts back from 8.5 f to a mile and this may be what the doctor ordered. #8 Capla Temptress is a long range closer for trainer Bill Mott and “Jersey” Joe Bravo in the irons. She has not raced for two months and drops in class from the G1 QEII at Keeneland. She’s going to need a solid pace and the players look to give her a holiday wish. #7 Cherry Lodge is a stalker for the Todd Pletcher barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. She has been off for 58 days and should go right to the lead under Ortiz who is one of the best speed riders in the nation. She is bred to carry the distance and can be dangerous if left alone.

Race #10 – The G3 Sugar Swirl – 6f – 4:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Dream Pauline / #4 – Stormy Embrace / #2- Awestruck

#7 Dream Pauline is a daughter of Tapit for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. She is 2 for 3 ITM with wins and comes in from CD after being forced to steady down the backstretch. 2nd start off the layoff and loves the distance going 3 for 3 ITM. She should sit back and get a great ride from Castellano and come calling late. #4 Stormy Embrace is a solid filly in the hands of Tyler Gaffalione winning 22%. She exits the BC Filly and Mare Sprint and tossed in a clunker. The drop in class should help her causes and 2nd off the layoff yields the Kathleen O’Connell barn 19% with her sprinters. I like her chances and I’m sure we’ll see good things down the road from this young lady. #2 Awestruck is a Rusty Arnold trainee with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. This is her 3rd off the shelf and she is 2 for 2 ITM over the GP oval. Look for Hernandez to come rolling late in the final furlong. She has a sharp work to prepare and can be  a major player today.

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – 11/10/18

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs

Race #10 – The G3 Commonwealth Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Hot Springs / #4 – March to the Arch / #1 – Reride

#7 Hot Springs is a son of Uncle Mo for trainer Steve Asmussen with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. They are winning 21% as a team and make a 3rd off the layoff move. He exits a win in the Jefferson Cup bringing him to a perfect 3 for 3 under the Twin Spires. He turns back in distance from 1 1/8 and looks like a perfect stalker waiting to pounce. #4 March to the Arch ships in from Belmont for the Mark Casse barn. This son of Arch ran a solid 4th in the G2 Hill Prince last out and appears ready to roll. He cuts back in distance and should come rolling late in the lane. #1 Reride is a son of Candy Ride for the Asmussen barn. He is making his third off the layoff today and should be a major pace player. Florent Geroux in the irons and was a beaten favorite last out at Keeneland. His last race came off the turf and he returns to the sod for this event.

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Race #6 – The Atlantic Beach – 6f on the turf – 2:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Absentee / #4 – Gins and Tins / #3 – Wallace

#7 Absentee is a son of Fed Biz for trainer Alan Goldberg. Irad Ortiz in the irons and his dam Truant has 5 starters, 4 wins, and 2 turf winners to her credit. He cuts back in distance and should come calling late in the lane under the strong hand of Ortiz. #4 Gins and Tins is a son of Scat Daddy for trainer Wesely Ward.  John Velasquez in the saddle and his dam High Walden has 7 winners, 5 winners, and 5 turf winners with her progeny. He’s been away from the races since Saratoga and working a regular clip over the Keeneland strip. Ward takes off the blinkers and wins 24% with this equipment change. #3 Wallace is a son of Run Away and Hide for trainer Kelsey Danner. He drops in class from the G1 Summer at Woodbine and should flash early speed. He can be a player if left alone on the front end.

Race #8 – The Artie Schiller – 1 mile on the turf – 3:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Qurbaan / #9 – Projected / #6 – Bricks and Mortar

#1 Qurbaan comes to post for Kiaran McLaughlin. Luis Saez in the irons and at the time of this entry was seeking his 2,000th career win. He ran a solid 3rd at Keeneland in the G1 Shadwell Mile facing Next Shares who ran last weekend in the Breeders’ Cup. Since shipping in from France and getting Lasix he has the look of a dangerous runner. #9 Projected is a son of Showcasing for the Chad Brown barn. Irad Ortiz in the saddle, and ships in from Laurel off a G2 event as a beaten favorite. The drop in class should help greatly and Ortiz loves to finish strong down the lane. He faced Qurbaan and looks to square the record today. #6 Bricks and Mortar comes in for the Chad Brown barn off a one year layoff. Brown wins 29% with well rested runners and this son of Giant’s Causeway was facing graded company before his layoff. He is bred to relish the greensward and may win first off the bench at a square price.

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – 9/1/18

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Saratoga Race #10 – The G1 Spinaway – 7f – 6:13 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 Nonna Madeline / #3 Virginia Eloise / #7 Chasing Yesterday

#5 Nonna Madeline is making her 3rd start for trainer Todd Pletcher with John Velasquez in the irons. Last time she was off a bit slow and still managed to finish a solid 2nd as the beaten favorite. She has four solid works under her belt and Pletcher scores 25% coming back off a beaten favorite angle. She gets added distance and this race should fit her nicely. #3 Virginia Eloise is a daughter of Curlin for the Pletcher barn. She broke her maiden at first asking and raced a little green last out while putting together a big run down the lane. Javier Castellano in the saddle and she’ll track the pace looming a major danger. #7 Chasing Yesterday is a daughter of Tapit for the Bob Baffert barn. “Money Man” Mike Smith in the saddle as she was an impressive maiden winner on July, 28th. Her works have been solid and her dam Littleprincessemma has 5 starters with 5 winners from her babies.

Saratoga Race #11 – The G1 Woodward – 1 1/8 – 6:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 Gunnevera / #1 Yoshida / #10 Seeking the Soul

#9 Gunnevera comes to post for trainer Antonio Sano with Edgard Zayas in the saddle. This son of Dialed In ran into a wall in the Dubai World Cup two races back and came in off a 5 month layoff to score easily in the perfect prep. He’s had some problems in the past but looks healthy and ready for a big coming out party. He’s 2 for 2 ITM at Saratoga and makes the 2nd off the layoff move. I’m looking for a mature and ready runner to strut his stuff. #1 Yoshida is a Japanese bred runner for trainer Bill Mott. Joel Rosario in the irons and comes off a good effort at Ascot two back in the Gr1 Queen Anne. One thing for sure. Mott would not have him entered if he had any doubts about his ability. Bill Mott is 40% making the turf to dirt switch and it would be best not to count him out just yet. #10 Seeking the Soul is a son of Perfect Soul for talented trainer Dallas Stewart. He was a beaten favorite at Indiana last out and that was his last start since the Pegasus Cup in January. He’s 2 for 2 ITM at Saratoga and owns some very nice works to show readiness.

Kentucky Downs Race #8 – The $750,000 Tourist Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 6:26 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 Bound for Nowhere / #1 Mr. Misunderstood / #3 Camelot Kitten

#8 Bound for Nowhere comes to post for trainer Wesley Ward with Julio Garcia in the saddle. This son of The Factor has good speed and can throttle it back when needed. His last effort at Royal Ascot was promising and should be on the lead when they make the run into the undulating turn. #1 Mr. Misunderstood is a son of Archarcharch for the Brad Cox barn. Florent Geroux aboard and these guys win at a 33% clip as a team. He’s looking to make it three straight and owns some sharp works in the morning. The rider scores 14% on the turf and Brad Cox wins 30% on the sod. #3 Camelot Kitten hails from the Mike Maker barn for Ken and Sarah Ramsey. This son of Kitten’s Joy is a closer and may relish the drop from graded company. Tyler Gafflione in town and he scores at a 19% clip on the turf.


BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – June 16, 2018

Churchill Downs

Race #6 – G2 Wise Dan Stakes – 1 1/16 turf – 8:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections – #4 – World Approval / #5- Mr Misunderstood / #1 – Divisidero

#4 World Approval looks to be ready to uncork a big effort. He’s been off for three months and is 2/2 ITM over the CD course. John Velasquez in the irons for Mark Casse who is winning at 20%. He was a beaten favorite last out, and the barn comes back to score 25% on this move. The distance fits going 5 out of 6 ITM and he fires fresh off the layoff. #5 Mr. Misunderstood has been off for two months and ships in from Keeneland. This son of Archarcharch loves the track winning his only two starts and makes a drop in class from the G1 Makers Mile. #1 Divisidero has the services of Jevian Toledo and this son of Kitten’s Joy is making his 2nd start of the year. He’s a stone cold closer and a perfect 3/3 at Churchill.

Race #7 – G2 Fleur de Lis – 1 1/8 – 9:05 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections – #2 – Mopotism / #3 -Blue Prize / #5 – Song of Spring

#2 – Mopotism is making her second off the layoff run and moves from the turf to the dirt. The Doug O’Neill barn scores at a 19% win clip with his shippers as they travel in from Santa Anita. The change in surface and drop in class may do the trick. #3  Blue Prize can show good speed when asked. Jose Ortiz is in town, and is one of the best speed riders in the country winning 19% with early runners. #5 Song of Spring comes in fresh off a win at Pimlico in the DuPont Distaff. She’s a solid closer with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. I can see her sitting off the pace and making a bid around the far turn.  If there is any rain in the area she’ll be even better.

Race #8 – The G1 Stephen Foster – 1 1/8 – 9:39 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections – #6 – Backyard Haven / #2 – Patch / #1 – Honorable Duty

#6 Backyard Haven looks to be moving up the ladder in fine fashion. Lightly raced son of Tizway and the Chad Brown barn is 1/1 at Churchill. Irad Ortiz has the call and the barn wins at a 27% mark off a last race win. He has the look of a stalker but with the fast finishing Ortiz in the saddle he is excellent at getting his mounts to relax and wait. Look for an explosive effort under the Churchill lights. #2 Patch is making his 2nd start of the year. He came off a 9 month layoff and came rolling late in the lane. Luis Saez aboard for Todd Pletcher and this son of Union Rags may be maturing nicely. #1 Honorable Duty is making his 2nd effort of the year and came right back to score in an O.C. $100,000 to win easily. That was a great prep and looks to turn the table finishing 2nd in this race last year to Gun Runner. He’s not running in this field, and anything close to last year has him right there when the real running begins. Corey Lanerie has the call for Brendan Walsh.

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BetPTC Graded Stakes Preview – 4/28/18

Parx Race 8- The Lyman- 7 furlongs dirt- 4:04pm EDT

Bet PTC Picks- #5 Flashy Kyem / #8 Driven to Compete / #2 The Man

#5 Flashy Kyem- Turf-route-to-dirt-sprint is the move for this guy who ran against better down at Tampa this winter, and he comes in off two bullet works for Keith Nations, who is hitting at a 28% clip this year. The value play. #8 Driven to Compete- You have to respect Todd Pletcher, especially with anything that won twice in a row going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. This one turns back off the local routing win. Should get a nice trip from the outside post. #2 The Man- Winner of seven straight and undefeated over the strip, but hasn’t raced in nearly eight months, and it’s tough to take low odds on a horse who’s lone effort at this distance was a loss.

Santa Anita Race 4- The Santa Barbara- 1 1/2 miles turf- 4:30pm EDT

BetPTC Picks- #1 Lucy De / #6 Plein Air / #2 Pantsonfire

#1 Lucy De- One of four in here for Richard Baltas, and this one bounced back from the failed attempt against Plein Air with a win of her own against lesser, and then ran OK in the Grade 2 Santa Ana. The distance should suit her, and one of the Baltas runners will probably keep Plein Air honest early, setting up Lucy De’s close. #6 Plein Air- Unbeaten at the distance and definitely the one to beat, though at low odds. #2 Pantsonfire- Has three wins from five starts over the surface, although she has never been farther than 10 furlongs, and that effort didn’t inspre much confidence that this distance will be her best game. Still, she belongs.

Santa Anita Race 5- The Californian- 1 1/8 miles dirt- 5:00pm EDT

BetPTC Picks- #5 The Lieutenant / #4 Dr. Dorr / #1 Soi Phet

#5 The Lieutenant- Wasn’t able to catch Dr. Dorr last time due to the pedestrian fractions, but there is slightly more speed in here, plus an extra furlong. Will come running late. #4 Dr. Dorr- Has won four of six over the surface for Bob Baffert, and may just have the speed to get a comfortable lead if Talamo decides that’s the plan. But can he hold on? #1 Soi Phet- The other logical contender for the early lead. The only runner in the field with a win at the distance.


BetPTC Graded Stakes Preview 4/21/18

Keeneland Race 9- Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn- 1 1/2 miles turf- 5:30pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #3 Call Provision / #2 Oscar Nominated / #10 Itsinthepost

#3 Call Provision- Chad Brown can’t seem to miss here at Keeneland, and Call Provision should be ready to fire off the layoff. This guy runs his race every time and while the lack of pace signed on is a concern for anyone coming from way back, this son of Lemon Drop Kid is no stranger to chasing slow fractions. #2 Oscar Nominated- Loses his jock to the top pick, but is 2 for 4 at the distance and has the ability to be closer to the pace than most of the others. #10 Itsinthepost- Should be favored and we know he loves the distance. Also sports a win over the strip. Are the west coast grass horses as good as those in the east?

Charles Town Race 11- Grade 2 Charles Town Classic- 1 1/8 miles dirt- 5:36pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #4 Something Awesome / #6 Diversify / #2 You’re To Blame

#4 Something Awesome- Deftly stretched out the talent from 7 furlongs to this 9 furling distance last out at Laurel, and the 3rd-place finisher who also lands here won a Grade 3 at Aqueduct out of that event. Prado should sit just off the pace and pounce at a price. #6 Diversify should set the tone early and should hang on for a big piece with the class edge. He may need a race off the layoff, however. #2 You’re To Blame was no match for War Story last time, but Todd Pletcher sees fit to ship up here for the big purse.

Laurel Race 10- The Federico Tesio- 1 1/8 miles dirt- 5:40pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #4 Noble Commander / #6 Diamond King / #11 Holland Park

#4 Noble Commander- Undefeated sprinting against Florida-breds down south, but it’s hard to imagine Mark Casse would bring the horse and lure Julien if he wasn’t confident in this one’s ability to stretch out. Should be up close early. #6 Diamond King- Also tries to stretch out exiting the Grade 3 Swale against better. Has a win over the track for John Servis. #11 Holland Park- Ditches blinkers for McLaughlin. Already has a win and and a 2nd at this distance. Defeated 18-length next-out winner American Lincoln, who also lands here, in last.

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BetPTC Graded Stakes Preview- 4/14/2018

Keeneland Race 9- Grade 3 Lexington Stakes- 1 1/16 miles dirt- 5:34pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #4 Honor Up / #7 Pony Up / #12 My Boy Jack

#4 Honor Up- Ran with Audible back in November, and then romped by 11+ in his final juvenile start. Bill Mott sends out this non-Triple Crown nominee with Jose Ortiz in the irons, and this one figures to be a generous price with a few other big names drawn in. Should get first run on the early leaders and has every right to hold off the closers. #7 Pony Up- May prefer grass/synthetic, but there is ability in this one and this isn’t an intimidating bunch. Pletcher and Velazquez team up, and a win MIGHT land this one in the Kentucky Derby. #12 My Boy Jack- Went way wide when closing fast in the Louisiana Derby, but flattened out late and lands here in a desperate bid for Derby points. Has a major class edge.

Keeneland Race 10- Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes- 1 1/16 miles turf- 6:12pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #4 Dona Bruja / #3 Off Limits / #8 La Coronel

#4 Dona Bruja- Found herself on the lead at Tampa last time, but she’ll likely be closing fast from off the pace in here for Jose Ortiz. She came home in 22.1 in the Frist Lady over the course last fall. Undefeated at the distance. #3 Off Limits- One of three in here for Chad Brown, this Grade 1 winner needed her last at Tampa, and figures to be flying late under Joel Rosario. #8 La Coronel- Undefeated in three starts at Keeneland, but hasn’t been able to tally a win this year in two starts at Tampa against several of these in here with her today.

Oaklawn Race 10- Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap- 1 1/8 miles dirt- 6:40pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections- #9 Blueridge Traveler / #11 City of Light / #10 Accelerate

#9 Blueridge Traveler- Adds blinkers in an attempt to stay just a little closer for Ken McPeek following the local prep where he closed nicely from way back against a few of these. If we get a hot pace, this one figures to benefit the most. Definite value play if you are looking to beat the Californians. #11 City of Light- The talent in this one is obvious coming off consecutive Grade 1 wins sprinting out west. Needs to carry that talent an extra 1/4 mile, and that’s never easy at this level. A win here, and we have a major threat to the rest of the handicap division. #10 Accelerate- The likely favorite comes off an easy win in the Big ‘Cap and brings main pilot Victor Espinoza with him for John Sadler. Should end up with a good enough trip just off the leaders.

Oaklawn Race 11- Grade 1 Arkansas Derby- 1 1/8 miles dirt- 7:18pm EDT

BetPTC Selections- #3 Tenfold/ #6 Magnum Moon / #4 Dream Baby Dream

#3 Tenfold- Two local wins in two career starts for this son of Curlin for Steve Asmussen and Victor Espinoza. Will definitely be no better than fourth choice in the wagering. Definitely conceding some experience to the main rivals, but has looked strong in the two routing wins. #6 Magnum Moon- Won the local prep convincingly and looks to head to Louisville as one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders with a nice effort here. No reason to think he won’t outfinish the ones he beat last time. #4 Dream Baby Dream- Ran a nice 2nd to Runaway Ghost in the Sunland Derby, and has the look of an up-and-comer for Steve Asmussen. Don’t be surprised to see this guy make his way to Churchill Downs with a board finish here.

BetPTC Graded Stakes Preview – 4/7/18

Kee 10th (6:23 PM EDT) Blue Grass S. (G2)

Best Value Plays:          #4-Kanthaka (10/1), #2-Sporting Chance (10/1)

Most Likely Winner:       #11-Good Magic (2/1)

Other Contenders:         #10-Free Drop Billy (5/1), #12-Flameaway (6/1), #13-Machismo (20/1)

Weak Favorite:              None

Analysis: #11-Good Magic is the one to beat. He has had his prep and should be sitting on a big race. The pace should be quick early and Jose Ortiz should be able to get a nice stalking trip if he can avoid going wide on the first turn from post 11. Good Magic has some tactical speed and the field should be stretched out with speed on the inside and the outside so the chances are good he can avoid going too wide. After that the race is crazy wide open. #4-Kanthaka went to his knees in his last but still ran well despite a wide trip throughout. He made a nice middle move right when Bolt and McKenzie were really starting to pick it up. He did hang late but that was his first route and he had to use a lot of energy to make up for his poor start. He also galloped out well after the race. He draws a good post and should get a nice stalking trip under LeParoux who does his best riding in Kentucky. #2-Sporting Chance ran well in his last despite a very wide trip and he also draws a good post. He will likely be sent to the lead from the inside and could be the best of the speed if they don’t go too fast early. You can make a case for many others including #13-Machismo. The pace, trips, and racing luck will determine the outcome.

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