Tag Archives: Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 22

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/22/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs Race #5 – The G3 Winning Colors – 6f dirt – 7:57 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Frank’s Rockette / #4 – Sconsin / #5 – Bayerness

#2 Frank’s Rockette is 2 for 2 at CD for Bill Mott with Florent Geroux in the saddle. 2nd time off the layoff where the barn wins 19% and is 6 for 7 ITM at the distance. She’s a stalker type and sports a bullet work coming into the race. She was a beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to score 24% on this angle. #4 Sconsin hails from the Greg Foley barn with Tyler Gafalione in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff they score 20% and cut back in distance from 7f. She’s a closer and Tyler G wins 19% with late runners. #5 Bayerness comes from the Cherie DaVaux barn with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. 2nd start of the year and this gal has a solid late punch. She has plenty of back class and could improve greatly.

 

Santa Anita

Race #2 – The G2 Santa Maria – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 4:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – As Time Goes By / #4 – Ce Ce / #2 – This Tea

#5 As Time Goes By goes to post for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith in the driver’s seat. 3rd off the layoff and 4 for 4 ITM at SA. She owns a bullet work as this daughter of American Pharoah exits off a solid win cutting back in distance. #4 Ce Ce hails from the Preakness-winning Michael McCarthy barn with Victor Espinoza in the irons. She is 6 for 6 ITM and she makes her 2nd start of the year and will be stalking off the pace. Her bullet work shows preparation moving forward. #2 This Tea just missed last out with Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. This daughter of Curlin is 3 for 5 ITM at SA and has faced some tough gals in the past. She may complete your exotics for a solid payoff.

Race#7 – The G3 Honeymoon – 1 1/8 on the turf – 7:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 -Going Global / #7 – Madone / #3 – Golden

#6 Golden Global is three for three at SA for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat in the irons as they win 31% as a team. Been off for 49 days and will come rolling late in the lane. Prat is fresh off a Preakness victory and wins 28% with late runners. The one to beat. #7 Madone makes her 2nd start of the year and 2 for 2 at SA. She exits off a win in the G3 Senorita and Juan Hernandez wins 17% on the turf. Simon Callaghan brings a solid closer to post. #3 Golden makes her second start off the layoff for Richard Mandella and Umberto Rispoli in the saddle. She was moving late in the G3 Senorita and will appreciate the added distance. Rispoli wins 25% on the turf.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 15 Preakness Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/15/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Pimlico Race#11 – The G3 Maryland Sprint – 6f – 4:41pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Strike Power / #2 – Yodel E.A. Who / #8 – Special Reserve

#5 Strike Power is a speedster from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. He ships in from OP and the barn scores 20% making the trip. Santana wins 21% with speed style runners and wins 26% teaming up with Asmussen. Look for a quick break and off to the lead with this son of Speightstown. #2 Yodel E. A. Who is a stalker who makes his 3rd start off the layoff.  Sheldon Russell wins 26% with stalkers and scores a 36% win clip with trainer Brittany Russell. They make the trip off a solid effort at Belmont and should be in mid pack looking to pounce.  #8 Special Reserve hails from the Mike Maker barn shipping in off a sharp effort at KEE. He cuts back in distance from 7f for Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz in the irons. Ortiz is an excellent judge of pace and should keep him right off the pace looking to get in the game as they turn for home.

 

Race#12 – The G2 Dinner Party – 1 1/16 on the turf – 5:38 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Sacred Life / #1 – Somelikeithotbrown/ #3 – Kuramata

#5 Sacred Life is a strong closer from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. They are making their 2nd start of the year shipping in from KEE off a fast closing effort in the G1 Makers Mile. He drops down in class and is 13 for 17 ITM on the greensward. He gets added distance and is 5 for 5 ITM going this far. Castellano wins 18% with late runners and should be a major danger. #1 Somelikeithotbrown hails from the Mike Maker barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. This son of Big Brown shows quick foot and should be on the engine with an excellent speed rider. He caught a yielding turf course last year in the same race and ran a game second. Ortiz will be looking to finish the job turning for home. #3 Kuramata is a lightly raced son of Australia (GB) for the Chad Brown barn. He is two for two in the states and gets the acid test today moving up the ladder. Irad Ortiz is a very strong finisher and will come calling as they turn for home. The barn scores at a 23% clip in graded stakes.

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Race#13 – The G1 Preakness – 1 3/16 – 6:47 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Midnight Bourbon / #3-Medina Spirit / #4 – Crowded Trade

#5 Midnight Bourbon is an early runner who exits the Derby from a rough trip. Bumped from the start and forced wide on both turns. The Steve Asmussen trainee has Irad Ortiz in the saddle and he’s a tough rider who will secure a good spot. Ortiz wins 28% with early runners and cuts back in distance that may fit his needs. He is 7 for 8 ITM lifetime and always brings his top game. I’m looking for a closeup trip gauging the pace. #3 Medina Spirit went wire to wire in the Derby for Bob Baffert. John Velasquez in the saddle and should have him up close. He’s been all the talk since winning the Derby, and the only one right now who can take the Triple Crown. I think we’ll see a close to the lead trip, and if he brings his top game may be tough to run down. #4 Crowded Trade is a lightly raced son of More Than Ready for Chad Brown. Javier Castellano gets the call and will be rolling late in the lane versus a field laden with speed. He finished a game third in the G3 Wood and got a few solid works under his belt keeping fresh and ready. They switch over to Castellano who wins 20% with late runners and should be a player in the field.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 8

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/8/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race#7 – The G3 Vagrancy – 6 1/2f dirt – 4:06 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Pacific Gale / #7 – French Empire / #3 – Victim of Love

#6 Pacific Gale is a daughter of Flat Out is seeking three straight with John Velasquez in the irons for John Kimmel. She is 7 for 10 ITM at BEL and loves the distance. She’s been off 49 days and looks to stalk just off the lead. Since losing Lasix in her stakes she appears to have found another gear. #7 French Empire is a deep closer for Brad Cox with Javier Castellano in the saddle. She seeks her 5th in a row and ships in from OP. She steps up in class and needs a pace to run down. Look for Javier to come calling as they hit the top of the lane. #3 Victim of Love is a stalker who should be mid flight in the hands of Joel Rosario. She’s an honest runner and should be a major player as they square off down the lane.

Race# 9 – The G-3 Peter Pan – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:12 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Risk Taking / #2 – Nova Rags / #3 – Promise Keeper

#6 Risk Taking is a closer coming off a dismal effort as the beaten chalk in the G2 Wood. Irad Ortiz has the call for Chad Brown and they are winning 33% as a team. He sports a sharp work and looks to erase that last race and come running late in this compact field. Irad wins 27% with late runners and Chad Brown wins 28% coming off a beaten chalk effort. #2 Nova Rags hails from the Bill Mott barn and has Junior Alvarado in the saddle. He is one for one at BEL and should improve dropping down a class level from the G1 Fla Derby. Alvarado was aboard twice and broke his maiden at Belmont. Look for an up close trip right off the pace. #3 Promise Keeper is a stalker for Todd Pletcher with Luis Saez in the driver’s seat. This son of Constitution had an excellent win at KEE and looks to use this as a springboard to bigger and better things. I see Saez having a garden trip along the rail keeping an eye on the leader.

Race#10 – The G-1 Man o’ War – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Gufo / #7 – Field Pass / #3 – Ziyad

#8 Gufo is a strong closer for Christophe Clement with Joel Rosario aboard. He is 1 for 1 at BEL and was flying late in the G1 Hollywood Derby. I’m looking for a strong effort under Rosario who wins 21% on the turf and owns a couple razor sharp bullet works. He is 8 for 8 ITM on the weeds and should improve off his last effort. #7 Field Pass exits the G1 Makers Mile at KEE for Mike Maker and has a mid flight closing style. Luis Saez in the irons and should be a little closer with added distance. He should improve for his 2nd effort off his layoff and Saez wins 18% with late runners on the turf. #3 Ziyad shipped over from France three back for Graham Motion with Manny Franco in the saddle. He looks to layoff off the pace and pounce when asked. he faced Gr 1 company in France and should fit in the picture. Franco has ridden the last two efforts and kick in before they turn for home. The barn wins 18% with a 90 day or better layoff and fresh legs may be a factor in taking a step up the class ladder.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – KY Derby Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/1/2021 – Kentucky Derby Day

by: Ed Meyer

Kentucky Derby 147

Churchill Downs

Race #9 – The G2 American Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:40 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Annex / #12 – Lucky Law / #13 – Scarlett Sky

#4 Annex is a son of Constitution for Bill Mott and Irad Ortiz. A fast closing colt who is a perfect 3 for 3 on the green. He moves up in class and after watching his last effort looks like he can be a major player. Look for a move around the far turn for Ortiz who wins 25% with his late running turf horses. #12 Lucky Law hails from the Patrick Biancone barn as the value play in this stakes. His style is to come running late, but if you saw his last race he hit the gate and ran into some traffic down the lane. A clean trip puts him right there under Florent Geroux with a sharp work coming into the race. #13 Scarlett Sky is a son of Sky Mesa for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario in the saddle. He is 6 for 7 ITM on the turf and exits a fast closing win in the G3 Transylvania. He’ll launch a late run, but will have to overcome the outside post. Dangerous player.

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Race  #10 – The G1 CD Stakes – 7f dirt – 4:31 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Mind Control /#9 – Whitmore/ #4 – Flagstaff

#2 Mind Control hails from the Gregory Sacco barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He is 2nd off a layoff where the barn wins 21% and sports a bullet work coming into the race.  He is 7 for 11 ITM going 7f and Ortiz will have him high gear at the top of the lane after stalking the pace.  Breeders’ Cup champ #9 Whitmore goes to post for Ron Moquette and Ricardo Santana in the irons. This is his 3rd start off a layoff and was a beaten favorite at OP against a tough field. Moquette comes back to score at a 25% win clip on this move and owns a bullet work to prepare. Look for a patient stalking trip from Santana when the gates open. #4 Flagstaff ships in from KEE off an impressive win for the John Sadler barn with Luis Saez as the reinsman. A solid stalking sort who is 4 for 5 ITM going this distance.

 

Race#11 – The G1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:27 pm

BetPTC.com Selections /#3 – Colonel Liam / #5 – Domestic Spending / #6 – Digital Age

#3 Colonel Liam hails from the barn of Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat. He is seeking his 4th straight win and makes his 2nd start off a layoff coming in from FG. Distance should be no problem as he has a win going 9f and has run longer. [Note: In stakes, runners are not competing on Lasix].  He has an impressive win in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf kicking out and closing strong for the win. Ortiz is a master with late runners winning 26%. #5 Domestic Spending comes off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat gets the nod. He is seeking his 3rd straight win shipping back from the G1 Hollywood Derby. He is a son of Kingman (GB) who wins 21% with first time turfers. Prat is incredible on the greensward winning 28% and 66% ITM. Look for him to come calling at the top of the stretch. #6 Digital Age is a late running son of Invincible Spirit (IRE) for the Chad Brown barn. Javier Castellano stays aboard and is 2 for 2 with wins at CD. He has a solid late kick but is going to have to shake off that lackluster effort in the BC Mile last out lunging at the start. He may give you that square price at the windows to complete your exotics.

 

Race#12 – The G1 Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 6:57 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #15 – Rock Your World / #14 – Essential Quality / #17 – Highly Motivated

#15 Rock Your World is a son of Candy Ride for John Sadler with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is lightly raced and took a little different path to get here. He was 2 for 2 with wins on the turf when Sadler entered him in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He romped home with ease and looked good doing it. This stamped him as one to take seriously. Breaking from the outside will allow him to drop over if he wants the lead or stalk just off the flank of a rabbit. I see this colt having versatility looking to hitting his best stride. They switched to Rosario and he is winning 33% with Sadler. Add in a sharp work and he is taking well to the Louisville surroundings; we have a top shelf player ready to run. #14 Essential Quality is an undefeated son of Tapit for Brad Cox and Luis Saez in the saddle. He is a perfect 5 for 5 and has done nothing wrong. He’s the kinda horse you wish for, and that is the plan for his owner Godolphin. They are 0 for 11 trying to take down the Derby, and it is only a matter of time when it happens. This talented colt can stalk from mid flight and give them all they want down the lane. This has the feel of a heavyweight battle, and he is the favorite to win the crown. I like everything about this colt except the heavy pounding he is going to take at the windows. A must use in exotics. #17 Highly Motivated hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat.  The colt grabbed the lead and dueled Essential Quality to the wire in the G2 Bluegrass, losing by a head. He is game and I’m looking for a front end attempt to wire the field. This will either be lights out or allow Rock Your World to draft behind him. Look for him as the gate breaks as he’ll be looking to the front. My only questions are; did the Bluegrass take too much out of him, and is he distance limited? We’ll know about two minutes and change after they leave the starting gate.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 17th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/17/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-2 Elkhorn – 1 1/2 on the turf – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Red Knight / #2 – Say the Word / #7 – North Dakota

#10 Red Knight hails from the Bill Mott barn with James Graham in the saddle. He’s been away from the races for 4 months and Mott scores 16% with layoff runners. He is 4 for 5 ITM going the distance and two for two ITM over the oval. With the early speed keeping the pace manageable, look for this son of PurePrize to get involved when the fan out turning for home. #2 Say the Word is a late runner for trainer Phil D’Amato and the red hot Luis Saez in the irons. 2nd time off the shelf with a bullet work shows good signs, and Saez wins 19% with late runners turning for home. #7 North Dakota is a late runner for Shug McGaughey and exits the G1 Pegasus Turf at GP. He picks up John Velasquez and could complete your exotics with a lane run in the lane to brighten up trifecta and superfecta tickets. He beat the top choice in here and should be considered a player.

Oaklawn Park

Race #9 – The G-2 Oaklawn Hcp- 1 1/8 – 5:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Owendale / #2- Express Train / #1 – Silver Slate

#6 Owendale comes from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle.  3rd off the layoff yields a 28% win clip for the barn and is 5 for 6 ITM going the distance. He’ll come running late and Geroux wins 30% with the connections. He was a beaten favorite last out and sports a bullet work coming into the race. #2 Express Train is a stalker coming from the John Sheriffs’ barn. They cut back in distance and take a class drop going in the starting gate. Juan Hernandez makes the trip to Hot Springs and has finished 2 for 2 ITM aboard this son of Union Rags. #1 Silver Slate is a son of Hard Spun for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana going for his 5th straight win moving up in class. Drawing the rail and 2 for 2 with wins at OP make him hard to overlook.

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Race #11 – The G-1Apple Blossom – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 7:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Monmoy Girl / #2 – Swiss Skydiver / #3 -Letruska

#6 Monomoy Girl is making her second start of the year and looks to keep her winning record going for the Brad Cox barn. She is a versatile gal who can stalk or jump right to the front with a lack of pace. Florent Geroux fits her like a glove and will break close on the outside staying out of traffic. She should on the lead or just on the outside keeping the leader in sight. #2 Swiss Skydiver is a stalker as well and has faced Monomoy in the past. She gets a good post draw for Kenny McPeek and Robby Albarado. She is 1 for 1 at OP making her second start of the year.  #3 Letruska is a speedy daughter of Super Saver and should go right to the front to steal the race by slowing down the fractions under Irad Ortiz. She is game but will have her hands full trying to slow the pace down against the top two. Major player to complete exotics.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 10th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/10/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland Race #9 – The G-3 Lexington Stakes – 1 1/16 – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections – #2 – Swiftsure / #7 – Proxy / #5 – Unbridled Honor

#2 Swiftsure is a lightly raced son of Uncle Mo for Steve Asmussen with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is 2 for 2 lifetime with one start in 2020 and 2021. He has a speedy style and with Ortiz in the saddle could very easily settle just off the speed. His dam Island Saint is stakes placed and has one starter with one winner to her credit. Ortiz wins 24% with early type runners and should be in the catbird seat turning for home in the short stretch. #7 Proxy is a speedy son of Pulpit for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He is 5 for 6 ITM and should flash good early foot. If you take a look at his PP’s you’ll see his best races were on Lasix. That is my only question keeping him out of the top spot; but with a bullet work, he’ll take plenty of action at the windows. Demand better than the morning line odds before making any decisions. #5 Unbridled Honor is a late runner for the Todd Pletcher barn with Julien Leparoux getting the nod. His last race in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby was better than it looked. He finished up strong and ships in from TBD where the Pletcher barn wins 24% with new surroundings. He may be blooming at the right time and the bullet work catches my attention over the deep Palm Beach course.

Race#10 – The G-1 Jenny Wiley – 1 1/16 on the turf – 6:03 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Micheline / #4 – Etoile / #2 – Tamahere

#1 Micheline hails from the Mike Stidham barn with red hot rider Luis Saez in the irons. She cuts back in distance and will be rolling late in the lane. Her victory in the G2 Hillsborough at TBD was strong last out and she is making her second start of the year with a bullet work to prepare. #4 Etoile is coming off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in the irons. Her first start of the year and should be closing late as she shortens in distance. Castellano wins 29% with Brown and shipping in off a long layoff fits Chad Brown well as he wins 30% with freshened runners. #2 Tamahere makes her first start of the year for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. A late runner who has done well with shipping to the states. Ortiz is a very strong closing runner and wins 28% with his turf runners.

Oaklawn Park

Race #12 – The G-1 Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 – 7:41 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Concert Tour / #3 – Hozier / #1  Super Stock

#5 Concert Tour hails from the Baffert barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be a major pace player. He won his only start at OP and has a bullet work to tighten the screws moving forward. Rosario has been riding very well wherever he hangs his tack and has a 57% win clip teaming up with Bob Baffert. #3 Hozier is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. He ran a game 2nd against the favorite in here and will be running late. The bullet work and added distance make him dangerous. #1 Super Stock is a mid pack stalker for Steve Asmussen. This is his 2nd start of the year and will be a factor in the exotics. They switch back to Ricardo Santana who is the Asmussen go to rider. The extra half furlong should help his causes drawing the rail and saving ground when the real running gets going.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 3rd

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/3/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race #10 – The G-2 Wood Memorial – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:58pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Crowded Trade / #4 – Risk Taking / #6 – Prevalence

#2 Crowded Trade hails from the Chad Brown with Eric Cancel in the irons. He’s a late runner and just missed in the G3 Gotham after bobbling at the start. Brown wins 48% 2nd time going a route and a few solid works leading up to the race. Look for a late run as they near the quarter pole. #4 Risk Taking goes to post for Chad Brown with a perfect 2 for 2 over the track with wins. I liked his effort winning the G3 Withers going 9f and with Irad Ortiz in the saddle look for a strong late kick as he has won twice going the distance. Ortiz wins 31% with his route runners. #6 Prevalence has good speed from the Brendan Walsh barn shipping up from GP. Tyler Gaffalione has the call and I’m looking for a quick break to be near the front of the pack. He is a perfect two for two and looks to keep his record intact moving up the class ladder off a bullet work.

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-1 Ashland – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Malathaat / #3 – Simply Ravishing / #2 – Pass the Champagne

#5 Malathaat goes to post for Todd Pletcher and Joel Rosario. She is the daughter of Curlin who is a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime. She is cutting back from 9f and should relish a perfect stalking trip. She has been away for 90 days and Pletcher wins 28% with layoff runners. #3 Simply Ravishing is a stalking type runner and gets Luis Saez back in the saddle for Kenny McPeek. This is her 1st start of 2021 and was the winner of the G1 Alcibiades last year at KEE. Look for a closeup trip in the hands of Saez. #2 Pass the Champagne is a deep closer for George Weaver and Javier Castellano. This is a big jump in class and was impressive in victory last out. Her dam Champagne Taste has 7 starters with 7 winners to her credit.

Race #11 – The G-2 Bluegrass Stakes – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Essential Quality / #5 – Rombauer / #3 – Highly Motivated

#4 Essential Quality is a son of Tapit from the Brad Cox barn. He is a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime and makes his 2nd start of the 2021 racing season. Luis Saez is the pilot and has been aboard for three of his four lifetime wins. 2nd time off a layoff yields the Cox barn a 28% win clip. Look for a close stalking trip keeping an eye on the pace. #5 Rombauer was nominated to the Jeff Ruby but opted for a trip over the KEE dirt. He is a deep closer and is maturing with every start. His closing win in the El Camino Real was impressive for trainer Mike McCarthy and they switch to high percentage money rider Florent Geroux. The Ruby was a 100 point Derby race but they opted to get back to the dirt. He ran a decent effort in the BC Juvenile. He’s been off for 49 days, but the barn scores 19% with layoff runners. #3 Highly Motivated hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano. The G3 Gotham was a very good prep for good things ahead and Castellano has been aboard this closer every time. The added distance should fit his needs well.

Santa Anita

Race#6 – The G-2 Santa Anita Oaks – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Beautiful Gift / #3 – Soothsay / #1 – Moraz

#5 Beautiful Gift hails from the Bob Baffert barn with John Velasquez in the saddle. Her victory in the G3 Santa Ysabell was a top display of a stalker with patience. She is 2 for 2 ITM at SA and Johnny V looks for his 2nd straight win. #3 Soothsay just broke her maiden for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. She stretches out to a distance for the first time, and her morning works signal good things moving forward. #1 Moraz draws the golden rail under Umberto Rispoli for Mike McCarthy. The rail is winning at 24%, and she is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. Rispoli is a hot rider who is 11 for 15 ITM the past seven days. Look for a stalking trip saving ground along the rail.

Race #8 – The G-1 Santa Anita Derby – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / # 2 – Dream Shake / #7 – Medina Spirit / #3 – Rock Your World

#2 Dream Shake hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. he had an impressive maiden win sprinting, but the extra distance may have caught him a little flat footed. He sports some sparkling works and this lightly raced colt may be ready to move forward. Prat wins 38% with Eurton and 23% with closers. #7 Medina Spirit is a speedster from the Bob Baffert barn. John Velasquez in the saddle and they bring a tough game every time they hit the track. Baffert is winning 30% at the meet and could be dangerous with added distance if left alone on the lead. #3 Rock Your World is a stalker from the John Sadler barn. They are a perfect 2 for 2, but both wins were on the grass. Making the turf to dirt change yields Sadler a 22% win clip. This son of Candy Ride should be right off the speed and looks to up his game against this level of competition. Sadler making the move from turf to dirt in G1 competition leaves me feeling he likes what he sees in his runner.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 20

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/20/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Fair Grounds

Race #11 – The New Orleans Classic – 1 1/8 – 5:12 pm

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BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Owendale / #1 – Roadster / #3 – Olliemyboy

#2  Owendale makes his 2nd start off the layoff for Brad Cox who scores at a 27% win clip on this move. He is 2 for 3 ITM at FG and gets added distance where he is 4 for 5 ITM. A strong closer in the hands of Florent Geroux should be effective in a slow pace projected race where he’ll come calling at the top of the lane. #1 Roadster comes off a one year layoff for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He does well coming in fresh and gets the acid test today. He should be placed mid pack and looks to kick off the year with a solid stalking trip. #3 Olliemyboy makes his 3rd start off the layoff for Norm Casse and Irad Ortiz. This is a big jump in class and owns a perfect 2 for 2 at FG. Ortiz is a great finishing rider and he’ll be looking to come flying late in the lane.

Race #12 – The G-2 Muniz Memorial – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:43 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Colonel Liam / #8 -Spooky Channel / #1 – Factor This

#5 Colonel Liam hails from the Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. They win 31% as a team and this late runner comes off a win in the Pegasus Cup Turf at GP. He gets Lasix added and turns back in distance. Look for a strong late punch under Ortiz who wins 26% with late running turf horses. #8 Spooky Channel is a late runner taking a hike up the class ladder after scoring in the G3 Connelly at Sam Houston. Florent Geroux in the saddle and his patient style is a plus off a 48 day layoff. #1 Factor This is a speedy runner from the Brad Cox barn drawing the rail under Shaun Bridgmohan who wins 20% with early style runners. 2nd start off the shelf and was beaten chalk last out. He is 3 for 4 ITM at FG and will jump quickly at the break.

Race  #13 – The G-2 FG Oaks – 1 1/16 – 6:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Clairiere / #8 – Travel Column / #4 – Li’l Tootsie

#6 Clairiere is a late running daughter of Curlin for Steve Asmussen with Joe Talamo aboard. She turned back Travel Column last out in a very impressive performance with a flawless ride. She is 3 for 3 going this distance and owns some solid morning works moving forward. Joe Talamo stays aboard and should give another good account of this filly. #8 Travel Column is a late runner for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the driver’s seat. This is her second start of the year and should improve to make the battle go to round number two for the morning line favorites. Geroux fits like a glove and sports some good morning works. #4 Li’l Tootsie is a lightly raced closer for the Thom Amoss barn with Luis Saez in the irons. She had an impressive maiden win, and her last effort showed she may be special moving forward.

Race #14 – The G-2 – Louisiana Derby – 1 3/16 – 6:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Mandaloun / #4 – Proxy / #3 – Run Classic

#6 Mandaloun is a mid pack stalker who can patiently wait and pounce for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He is 2 for 2 ITM at FG and was impressive winning the G2 Risen Star. Geroux wins 26% with Cox and should be just off the leaders. The works are sharp and he should be a big part of the Derby trail with a top effort. #4 Proxy should be a major pace player for Mike Stidham and Johnny Velasquez. This son of Tapit is maturing and looks to stamp his ticket to Louisville. #3 Run Classic is a lightly raced son of Runhappy and makes the big jump up the class ladder. She hails from the Bret Calhoun barn with B.J. Hernandez in the saddle. That was an impressive maiden win, but he’ll need to kick his game into high gear today. Use in your exotics at a solid price.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 13

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/13/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Oaklawn Park

Race #5 – The G-2 Azeri – 1 1/16 – 3:03 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Getridofwhatailesu / #5 – Shedaresthedevil / #3 – Letruska

#4  Getridofwhatailesu has the services of Javier Castellano in the irons for Brad Cox. This daughter of Ghostzapper is 4 for 4 ITM over the OP strip and with rain predicted the entire weekend her win over a sealed sloppy track at OP may come in handy. She is stepping up in class for the acid test, but I think her affinity for the track and a soft surface may have her right in the picture. #5  Shedaresthedevil hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux aboard. She cuts back from 9f as a beaten favorite in the G1 Spinster off a 5 month layoff. Cox scores 23% with layoff runners returning and been working over the deep FG oval. #3  Letruska is a speedy daughter of Super Saver who is 2 for 2 ITM at OP and will sport a quick turn of foot. She is 3 for 3 at the distance coming off a bullet work.

Race #11 – The G-2 Rebel – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 6:16 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Get Her Number/# 7 – Concert Tour / #6 – Keepmeinmind

#4 – Get Her Number is a son of Dialed In for Peter Miller shipping in from California off a win in the G1 American Pharoah. He has been away for 5 months and Castellano picking up the mount is a plus. he shows some solid works and coming in with fresh legs may be just what the doctor ordered. # 7  Concert Tour hails from the Bob Baffert barn and is a perfect 2 for 2.  Joel Rosario stays aboard fresh off a win in the G2 San Vincente. He ships in from SA and Baffert wins 30% with his shippers. His bullet work of 1:11.2 is pretty impressive. #6  Keepmeinmind is a deep closer for the red hot Robertino Diodoro barn winning 29% at the meet. He’s been off for three months, but if you look at his past efforts at CD and KEE in the Breeders’ Cup you can see plenty of back class. David Cohen has the call and the barn comes back to score 26% off a last race win.

Santa Anita

Race #8 – The G-1 Beholder – 1 mile – 7:20 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Harvest Moon / #1 – Swiss Skydiver / #6 – As Time Goes By

#3  Harvest Moon is a daughter of Uncle Mo coming off a 4 month layoff for Simon Callaghan. She is a perfect 3 for 3 going a mile and has the services of Flavien Prat. She will lay just off the pace and make the winning move before the quarter pole. Prat fits her well and he wins 28% with stalkers. #1  Swiss Skydiver comes in for Ken McPeek with Robby Albarado making the trip. She has been off for four months and two back schooled the boys in the G1 Preakness. She’ll be right off the leader waiting to pounce and won the SA Oaks last year. #6  As Time Goes By steps up in class off a 55 day rest.  This Baffert runner should be right on the pace and is 2 for 2 ITM at SA. Mike Smith in the saddle is a bonus making a class hike. I think she’ll be a player in exotics.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 6

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/6/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Race #6 – The G-2 San Felipe – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Life is Good / #3 – Medina Spirit / #7 – Roman Centurian

#1 Life is Good is a speedster from the Bob Baffert barn with Mike Smith in the saddle. Been off for two months and the barn comes back to score 31% with fresh legs. Smith wins 30% with speed and this son of Into Mischief should improve off the layoff. #3 Medina Spirit is another speedy runner from the Baffert barn and has John Velasquez in the saddle. He should be just off the leader and make a move into the far turn. His 2 bullet works catch your attention. #7 Roman Centurian is a deep closer for Simon Callaghan and has faced some of the top runners in here. This son of Empire Maker will come calling late at a square price.

 

Race #8 – The G-2 San Carlos –  7f – 6:30 pm 

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Storm the Court / #7 – Exaulted / # 8 – Loud Mouth

#1 Storm the Court hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Johnny V in the irons. He makes the turf to dirt switch and a big cut back in distance. He should show close up speed on the turnback and will be a factor with the rail draw winning at 31%. #7 Exaulted is a let runner from the Eurton barn making his 2nd start off the layoff. He is 4 for 4 ITM over the course with Mike Smith aboard. #8 Loud Mouth is a solid stalker making a move up the class ladder. Should make a solid move on the far turn and shoot to complete your exotics.

3 Things to Look for when a new race meet opens up.

Race #9 – The G-1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 7:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Flavius / #1 – Smooth LIke Straight / #2  – Hit the Road

#6 Flavius is a late runner making his first start of 2021 for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat aboard. His dam Starformer has 3 starts, 3 wins, and 3 turf wins to her credit. Prat wins 22% with his late runners on the sod and this son of War Front has some nice works to build upon. #1 Smooth Like Straight is a stalker for Mike McCarthy and 5 for 6 ITM over the course. He draws the rail with Umberto Rispoli and he wins 21% with his up close runners on the green. This is his 1st start of 2021. #2 Hit the Road is a late runner with Florent Geroux aboard for Dan Blacker. He is seeking his 4th straight win and steps up in class. Geroux wins 20% with late running turf horses.

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Race #10 – The G-1 Santa Anita Handicap – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 7:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 -Maxfield / #6 – Idol / #1 – Independence Hall

#2 Maxfield is a stalker under Florent Geroux for Brendan Walsh. He is a perfect 5 for 5 and looks to be the major danger. Geroux is seeking his 3rd straight win and this son of Street Sense has the goods. His last race was impressive coming off a beat slow at the break but recovered very professionally. #6 Idol is a son of Curlin For Richard Baltas and always brings his best. Joel Rosario in the irons and should be running late. Maybe the added ground will show a new dimension as Rosario wins 21% with routers. #1 Independence Hall is a son of Constitution for Mike McCarthy. He has been knocking heads with some of the tough guys of racing and gets a rail draw under Flavien Prat who knows the course winning 28% with early stalkers. His bullet work has to give you a good reason to use in exotics.