Tag Archives: Kentucky Derby 146

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/5/2020 – Kentucky Derby

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/5/2020 – Kentucky Derby

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs – Derby Day

Race #8 – The G-2 American Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 2:55 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Smooth Like Strait / #4 – Field Pass / #3 – Sugoi

#5 Smooth Like Strait is a speedy son of Midnight Lute for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This is his 2nd off the layoff where the barn wins 18%. Versatile sort who can grab the lead or lay just off. He is 1 for 1 at CD and the same at the distance. Major player today. #4 Field Pass is a closing sort shipping in from Saratoga. Mike Maker is winning 17% with his grass starts and has Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle is winning 26% with Maker. He is 3 for 3 ITM at CD and has a nice late punch. #3 Sugoi is a mid pack stalker for Mike Tomlinson and Joe Rocco Jr. He was claimed off a tough 2nd place finish at CD and looks to be a solid fit in the race.

Race #9 – The G-2 Pat Day Mile – 1 mile – 3:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Cezanne / #2 – Echo Town / #9 – Rushie

#1 Cezanne is a son of Curlin for Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux. He’s cutting back from 8.5 furlongs and should relish the distance of the one turn mile. Look for an alert break keeping an eye on the pace to see when to push the button. #2 Echo Town hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the irons. A perfect stalker who may have the perfect style going the one turn mile. #9 Rushie enters for Mike McCarthy and Javier Castellano. He’s been off for 56 days since the G2 Bluegrass. His late run is solid, and Castellano wins 21% with late runners.

Race #10 – The G-3 Iroquois – 1 mile – 4:07 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Therideofalifetime / #3 – Super Stock / #7 – Pico d’ Oro

#10 Therideofalifetime is a son of Candy Ride for Ignacio Correas  IV with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He’s a speedy sort who should break close to the action from the start. Going a one turn mile may fit his wheelhouse and let him grab the lead with a rider who scores 19% with up close runners. #3 Super Stock is a son of Dialed In for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. He exits the Texas Futurity off a solid win and picks up Asmussen’s go to rider Santana. He’ll be up close as he gets the acid test today moving up the ladder. #7 Pico d’ Oro is a son of Curlin for William Morey and Javier Castellano. He has a nice late run and should relish the one turn mile. He moves up in class and sports a bullet work to prepare for the journey.

Race #11 – The G-2 Longines Churchill Distaff – 1 mile on the turf – 4:39 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 Newspaperofrecord / #6 – Beau Recall  /#2 – Daddy Is a Legend

#4 Newspaperofrecord hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. She is 2 for 2 ITM and 7 for 8 ITM on the turf. She has been off for two months and will come out quick from the gate break. Castellano wins 26% teaming up with Chad Brown. #6 Beau Recall is a closer for Brad Cox and Manny Franco in the irons. She is 8 for 10 ITM at the distance and ran second to the favorite back in the G1 Just a Game. If the pace is solid she’ll make her run around the final turn. #2 Daddy is a Legend comes in for Rusty Arnold and Florent Geroux in the saddle. This is her 2nd start of the year and looks to be getting ready for a fall campaign. A nice late kick with a rider who wins 19% with late runners is promising.

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Race #12 – The G-1 Derby City Distaff – 7f – 5:17 pm

BetPTC.com Selections/ #9 – Bellafina / #8 – Serengeti Empress / #10 – Ce Ce

#9 Bellafina is a daughter of Quality Road for Simon Callaghan with Mike Smith in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and 7 for 7 ITM at the distance. She’s a solid late runner and Smith wins 27% with closers. #8 Serengeti Empress hails from the Thom Amoss barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. She has quick early foot and will be a pace player from the gate. This is her 3rd off the layoff where Amoss wins 26%. #10 Ce Ce enters for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This daughter of Elusive Quality is a let runner and will be heard from in the final furlong. Don’t leave her out of your exotics.

Race #13 – The G-1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:50 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Scared Life / #1 – Factor This / #2 – Bowie’s Hero

#8 Sacred Life is a solid late runner for Chad Brown and Paco Lopez in the irons. Lopez wins 20% with his grass runners and 26% with late running types. I like his chances at a square price in this field. His win at Monmouth was very nice last out as a prep. #1 Factor This has blistering speed and draws the rail for Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan. He is 2 for 3 IT at CD and will jump out and snag the lead. Bridgmohan wins 25% with early runners. #2 Bowie’s Hero hails from the Phil D’Amato barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. 2rd off the layoff and the barn scores at 17% on this move. The rider fits and Geroux wins 20% with closing style runners.

Race #14 – The G-1 Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 – 7:01 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #17 – Tiz the Law / #16 – Honor A.P. / #7 – Money Moves

#17 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. He seeks his 5th straight win for Sackatoga Stable. He can jump out and overcome the #17 jinx with his versatile style of running. This is his 2nd off a brief layoff and ships in from the Spa. I’m looking for Franco to send from the outside and grab solid position. If he can be in the top six or seven runners as they past the Twin Spires the first time he’s going to be awfully tough. Look for Franco to keep him out of traffic and grab the lead before they make the turn for home. #16 Honor A.P. hails from the John Shirreff’s barn with Mike Smith in the saddle. A perfect stalker who will be very close to Tiz the Law not letting him out of view. When the real running begins look for Smith to press the chalk and play the role of the spoiler. #7 Money Moves is a son of Candy Ride for Todd Pletcher. Lightly raced and his efforts have all been promising. He was a beaten chalk last out and Pletcher comes back to score at a 26% win clip. This will be an acid test, and having Javier Castellano in the irons is a plus on big races.

Kentucky Derby 146 – Analyzing the Favorite

Churchill Downs finishBy ART PARKER for “Racing’s Best Kept Secret” BetPTC.com.

Not long ago a friend of mine that pays a small amount of attention to horse racing asked me, “Who will win the Derby?” I learned long before the turn of the century that answering that question is tough, if not impossible, for any good horseplayer. So, I answered with my usual smarty pants response of, “The one that crosses the line first.”

My friend would have none of that and responded with, “That’s what you said last year but that guy got disqualified,” referring to Maximum Security being the first Derby winner in 145 years to be disqualified for a racing violation during the running of the race. My next comeback was a simple, “I don’t know.” Then I came up with a verbal guarantee and proclaimed, “But I can guarantee who the favorite will be!”

Well, I didn’t say I was brave and going out on a limb with that prediction.

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Tiz the Law will be the favorite if he goes to the post, and as of this moment, there is no reason to believe he will be left out of the proceedings. There is no doubt in my mind and the mind of anyone who knows anything about horse racing in 2020.

The New York bred has won six of seven, four of which are Grade Ones. You rarely see that with any horse that is Derby bound. As a three-year-old he has won almost all of the big races. His victories include the Florida Derby, the Travers, and the Belmont Stakes (at a changed distance of nine furlongs). As a juvenile, he notched his first Grade One with a victory in the Champagne Stakes – one of the most important races for the two-year-olds.

In the Derby points standing he has not only accumulated more points than anyone in history (372 points), his closest rival in the standings is a very good colt named Authentic with only 200 points.

He is beautifully bred. His nicely bred sire, Constitution, was a Florida Derby winner that never had a complete chance to show how good he was. That means that Tiz the Law is a grandson of Tapit, the world’s top stallion. His dam is Tiz Fiz by Tiz Now. We all know that Tiznow is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Need I say more about the breeding of Tiz the Law?

His races have been impressive. He is quick from the gate but doesn’t need the lead. He has a good tactical speed to be close to the pace and stalk leaders. Tiz the Law is the epitome of class in my book because he appears to do the most important thing a racehorse can do – he follows orders and does what he is told to do. I saw this when he won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He was up close and in good position but pinned on the rail and had to take up down the backstretch. His rider, Manny Franco, checked his mount slightly, moved him outside of horses for a clear run, and asked him to advance. About the time Tiz the Law regained position, Franco said “Enough for now” and Tiz the Law went back to cruising instead of attacking. When it came time to attack Franco encouraged him slightly to go and he went into semi-assault mode. Once clear in the stretch Franco suggested a total attack and it quickly became a bad day for the rest of the field.

This appears to be his normal race. Get position, advance quietly to challenge then pounce – and take no prisoners.

In watching his races I have only seen one potential problem for Tiz the Law. He sometimes appears to have a little trouble in the turns. The difficulty is probably not enough to not cause concern, but in the Derby and a big field, anything can cost even the best horse the race. Franco has won over 1,000 races and is not viewed as one the classic riders, but I think Tiz the Law is in good hands and thus far Franco has been a great partner.

Others may believe that Churchill Downs may be a problem for him because that is the venue of his only loss, the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. I have a hard time buying that. Tiz the Law bobbled some leaving the gate and was in good position on the rail, but never had anywhere to go and was throttled back on a couple of occasions. He finally found a hole but the odds were stacked against him by that time. The track was off that day, and some may think that was an issue in the race. The rough trip was the downfall for Tiz the Law in his only loss.

I’m not touting Tiz the Law simply because I don’t like favorites from a wagering standpoint. However, if Tiz the Law is healthy, if weather and track condition are not an issue, and if he has a fair trip, then I will be shocked if he doesn’t win.

I don’t consider this three-year-old crop to be all that great. I’ve seen almost forty Derbies, and Tiz the Law is probably good enough to have won several of them. He is not Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Man o’ War or Affirmed, but when one combines his talent with the weak competition he seems invincible in 2020.

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