Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Oaklawn Park – 5/2/2020
by: Ed Meyer
Oaklawn Park / Arkansas Derby Day /Late Pick-Four
Race #11 – The G1 Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 – 6:29 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Gouverneur Morris / #1 – Charlatan / #11- Basin
#4 Gouverneur Morris is a son of Constitution for Todd Pletcher with John Velasquez in the irons. They ship in from GP where the barn wins 23%, and they make a 3rd off the layoff start where the barn also scores at 23%. He appears poised to stalk off the leaders and nails down his Derby points at a square price. #1 Charlatan is a son of Speightstown for trainer Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia as the pilot. He’s been off for 49 days and owns some bullet works to prepare. He is a perfect 2 for 2 and gets the acid test against some seasoned runners. Garcia took over from Drayden Van Dyke and Garcia wins 21% with early speed type runners. #11 Basin hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with his go to rider Ricardo Santana aboard. 3rd off the layoff and he appears to like the OP strip. He hasn’t had a fast track since July 21, 2019, and the weather calls for sunny conditions. He will come running late, and if the pace is hot he may be the danger in the final furlong.
Race #12 – The G2 Oaklawn Hcp – 1 1/8 7:04 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #12 – By My Standards / #9 – Tacitus / #7 – Combatant
#12 By My Standards comes from the barn of Bret Calhoun with Gabe Saez in the saddle. This son of Goldencents makes his 3rd off the layoff move where the barn scores 25%. He is 2 for 2 at the distance and this stalker owns some morning bullet works. Garcia fits like a glove, and since last year’s Kentucky Derby he has matured nicely. #9 Tacitus is a son of Tapit for trainer Bill Mott with John Velasquez in the irons. He’s been off for two months since the Saudi Cup in February. Mott has a perfect stalker type and this colt should relish the 9f. He fires well coming in fresh and switching to Johnny V is a plus. #7 Combatant is a son of Scat Daddy for the John Sadler barn with Joel Rosario in the driver’s seat. He’s been away for 56 days and will be rolling in the final furlong. If the pace is red hot he could be a major danger.
Race #13 – The G1 Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 miles – 7:43 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Nadal / #3 – Storm the Court / #8 – Fast Enough
#5 Nadal is a son of Blame for the Bob Baffert barn with Joel Rosario getting the nod. He’s been away for 49 days after a well timed win in the G2 Rebel. He shows quick speed and should be right at the front of the pack. He is undefeated and his bullet works have Baffert looking to make his way to the winner’s circle. #3 Storm the Court is a son of Court Vision for trainer Peter Eurton with Flavien Prat in the irons. He was the winner of the BC Juvenile last year and comes in off a 56 day rest. Early in his career, Prat had him coming off the pace. He has faced Nadal before and finished a game 4th taking plenty of interest at the windows. Look for him to be up close and employ a stalking move as they turn for home. #8 Fast Enough comes from the Rafael Becerra barn with Tyler Baze in the saddle. A lightly raced son of Eddington who is a late runner. He sports a bullet work at SA and the trainer wins 27% off a 60 day layoff or more.
Race #14 – Starter Alw $50,000 – 1 3/4 miles – 8:14 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Carlos Sixes / #13 – Curlin Grey / #14 – River Echo
#5 Carlos Sixes is a son of Quality Road for the always danger trainer Karl Broberg. He is 4 for 4 ITM at OP and exits off a game win. This stalker has the services of Charles Roberts and the barn scores 27% off a last race win. He should be close to the leaders as he moves up a notch in class. #13 Curlin Grey is a son of Curlin for trainer Joe Sharp and Martin Garcia in the saddle. 2nd off the layoff and a solid 4th last out over the course. He’s a closer and Garcia wins 28% teaming up with Joe Sharp. #14 River Echo hails from the Cipriano Contreras barn with Ramon Vasquez as the pilot. This is his 2nd off the layoff and was claimed last time out. The barn scores at a 26% off a last race win. He’ll be a mid pack stalker waiting for the right time to strike.