Tag Archives: Pavel

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – July 6th

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race #7 – The G1 Belmont Oaks – 1 1/4 miles on turf – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Newspaperofrecord / #4 – Concrete Rose / #5 – Cafe Americano

#2 Newspaperofrecord hails from the Chad Brown barn winning 30%. Irad Ortiz in the saddle of this daughter of Lope De Vega who has four starts and two turf winners to her credit. She is a pure speedster and is 3rd off the layoff and a beaten favorite last out. She should grab the lead and carry it from start to finish. #4 Concrete Rose is a daughter of Twirling Candy for trainer Rusty Arnold. Julien Leparoux in the irons as she comes off a two month layoff. She’s looking for three in a row and is a perfect stalker. She beat “Newspaper” last out in the G3 Edgewood impressively and is four for five with wins lifetime. She’ll be a little closer with added distance. #5 Cafe Americano is a daughter of Medaglia d’ Oro for Chad Brown. She is a perfect two for two and been working lights out in the morning. Javier Castellano in the saddle and he is winning 23% on the turf. Look for her to launch a strong rally as she gets the acid test.

Race #8 – The G2 John Nerud Stakes – 7f – 5:05 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Do Share / #9 – Promises Fulfilled / #4 – Nicodemus

#7 Do Share is a son of Candy Ride for trainer Mike Maker with Tyler Gafflione in the saddle. He was bumped soundly last out in the G1 Churchill and still finished a game fourth. He is three for six ITM at Belmont and with a sharp 4f work coming into the race is looking for a top effort. #9 Promises Fulfilled hails from the Dale Romans barn. This son of Shackleford has Luis Saez in the saddle exiting the G1 Metropolitan. He has plenty of speed and turns back to 7f. Going from a route to sprint to route they win 35%. #4 Nicodemus is a son of Candy Ride for trainer Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. He is a late closer and gets an added half a furlong to come rolling. Ortiz wins 14% on closers and Rice excels with sprinters winning 25%.

Race #9 – The G1 Belmont Derby – 1 1/4 on turf – 5:44 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Seismic Wave / #12 – Demarchelier / #8 – Social Paranoia

#3 Seismic Wave is a son of Tapit for trainer Bill Mott and Joel Rosario. He is a stone cold closer who is 2 for 2 ITM over the course. Rosario is winning 22% with closers and fits this colt like a glove. #12 Demarchelier is a son of Dubawi (IRE) for Chad Brown with Javier Castellano. This is his second off and is a perfect 3 for 3. He’s a strong late runner and look for him to come calling late in the lane. #8 Social Paranoia is a son of Street Boss for trainer Todd Pletcher and Manny Franco in the saddle. He’s been a beaten favorite in his last two trips and is looking to reward his backers. He should stalk mid flight and make a run at the pacesetters.

Race  #10 – The G2 Suburban – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 6:18 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Lone Sailor / #11 – Pavel / #3 – Rocketry

#5 Lone Sailor comes in for trainer Thom Amoss with Irad Ortiz aboard. He came flying in the G1 Gold Cup. A rider switch from Flavien Prat and Amoss adding blinkers where he wins 38% on the equipment change. Look for him late on the scene with a rider who wins 22% with closers. #11 Pavel hails from the Doug O’Neill barn with Mario Gutierrez in the saddle. 2nd off the layoff and shipping back from the Dubai World Cup as the barn wins 22% making the second time off the shelf. This son of Creative Cause will get a good stalking trip from the outside waiting from the rider to give the cue. #3 Rocketry is a son of Hard Spun for trainer James Jerkins with Joel Rosario. He can roll quickly in the lane and his last bullet work shows he is locked and loaded. Rosario wins 22% with stout closing types.

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 8/3/17

Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer

The weekend had all eyes on the Spa and Monmouth Park, and this was a great weekend to watch and wager. Tracks were stocked with graded stakes and solid performers. Good Samaritan won the G1 Jim Dandy making his first trip over the dirt for Bill Mott. The trainer always wins one on his birthday, and this was quite the present as he is heading toward the G1 Travers in late August. – Monmouth did not disappoint with a super undercard, and Girvin nailing McCraken on the square in the G1 Haskell. – Here are some runners who may have had a troubled trip or a good excuse for not making it to the winner’s circle. Keep them on your radar screen before heading to the windows. – Best of luck from your friends at BetPTC.com!

Saratoga

7/29/17

Race #7 – Alw – 1 1/16 on the turf – #7 – Mom’s On Strike

#7 – Mom’s On Strike = Filly by First Dude and she came flying late last in the $200,000 Pebbles. They made a rider change from Rajiv Maragh to Luis Saez who is winning (16%) on the turf and making her first start in 9 months. She was dropping in class and saw every bit of the track this day getting caught 4 wide on the first turn and 5 wide on the final turn. She closed like a downbound train getting beat by a 1 3/4. She’ll get into gear and rebound greatly off this race.

Race #9 – G2 Bowling Green – 1 3/8 on the turf – #4 – Sadler’s Joy

#4 – Sadler’s Joy = Son of Kitten’s Joy was making his first start off the shelf in 49 days for Thom Albertrani. He was exiting the G1 Manhattan and looked to fit like a glove in this race. Javier Castellano was weaving in and out of traffic getting caught wide a few times. Once he shook free and started to roll he was inhaled by the top two down the lane. I’m tossing this one to “race-rust” and we’ll look for good things to come on the next outing.

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Race #10 – G1 Jim Dandy – 1 1/8 – #4 – Pavel

#4 – Pavel = Trainer Doug O’Neill shipped in from California off an impressive 6 1/2f mdn win. This son of Creative Cause may be a good runner to follow as he had to show the connections he has the makings but he may need a little more time. From a maiden score to a G1 across the country may have been too much to ask. Keep your eyes peeled for him next time out as I think he’ll reward his backers coming soon.

Saratoga

7/30/17

Race #8 – A.O.C – 6f on the main – #3  Duquesne Whistle

#3  Duquesne Whistle = Son of Posse from the Linda Rice barn had the services of hot rider Ricardo Santanna. He was making his third off the shelf (25%) and had a bullet work on 6/25 before his victory on 7/1/17 at Belmont. He looked like a good play at (12-1) and he lost his footing at the start and then had to be “snatched” up by the rider to keep off of another runner. Once he got moving he made a solid effort running 4th this day.

Belterra Park

7/29/17

Race #3 – Mdn Sp Wt – 1 1/16 on the turf – #6 – Grey Queen

#6 – Grey Queen = Shipping in from Indiana Grand for the Calumet Farm connections. Edgar Paucar was the rider and trainer Jose Fernandez is winning (20%) on the year. – This daughter of More Than Ready was blocked, shuffled back and still came flying very quickly to be a bridesmaid this day. – She gets her picture taken next out with a cleaner trip.

Race #4 – Starter Alw – 1 3/16 on the main – #4 – National Defense

#4 – National Defense = Solid gelding shooting for three-in-a-row. He was 6/8 ITM over the track and made a perfect stalking move under Euclyn Prentice Jr. – He made a ground saving move against the rail and tried to tip off for clear sailing. He was impeded and blocked and was forced to settle for 3rd until a DQ placed him 2nd. I spoke with the riders after he had a meeting with the stewards over this incident and the rider felt he had the best horse by far and lost much of his momentum after being forced to check up off heels. – He’ll be a tough guy next time to the races.

 

Graded Stakes Preview – Saturday, July 29, 2017

BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Saratoga

Race #5 – G2 Amsterdam – 6 1/2f – 3:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Mo Cash  / #2 – Coal Front  / #6 – Toga Chamber 

Mo Cash = 3rd off the layoff shipping in from GP. He got beat a neck in the G3 Carry Back and they are cutting back 1/2f with one of the best speed riders in the game. This son of Adios Charlie is 5/5 ITM and Ortiz fits like a glove. Coal Front = Son of Stay Thirsty for Todd Pletcher barn. He is 2/2 and this is his acid test moving to the next level. Rider and trainer are 7/13 the last two weeks. His sire is 2/3 with his progeny and looks solid. Toga Challenger = Moves up the next class rung for Rudy Rodriguez (22%). Irad Ortiz in the saddle and they are 10/27 ITM the past week.

Race #8 – G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt – 6f – 5:02 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Bird Song / #8 – Limousine Liberal  / #4 – A.P. Indian 

Bird Song = Exits the G1 Stephen Foster and that me a race to toss out. They are cutting back from 1 1/8 – 6f with a win at the Spa. Trainer Ian Wilkes and Julien Leparoux team up to win (40%) the last two months and his blazing work of 47.1 / 1/99 at CD may have all systems go. Limousine Liberal = 7/9 ITM going 6 panels for Ben Colebrook. They are cutting back from 7f and Ortiz compliments his running style perfectly. The bullet work at Keeneland of 47 flat should have them ready to make a good showing. A.P. Indian = Son of Indian Charlie is 7/9 ITM at the distance and 2/3 ITM at Saratoga. Been off two months and working very solid in the morning for Arnaud Delacour.

Race #9 – G2 Bowling Green – 1 3/8 on the turf – 5:48 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Sadler’s Joy  / #5 – Hunter O’Riley / #1 – Bigger Picture 

Sadler’s Joy = Been off for 49 days since the G1 Manhattan. Thom Albertrani is the conditioner and he has the services of Javier Castellano in the irons. This son of Kitten’s Joy was 6 wide and closing stoutly last out. Castellano wins (19%) with his turf runners and his dam has three starters with three turf winners to her credit. Should be mid-pack with a target on the leaders. Hunter O’Riley = Been off for 50 days for the James Toner barn. Florent Geroux in the saddle as he exits the Belmont Gold Cup going 2 miles. Cuts back and has a devasting late kick. Bigger Picture = Joe Bravo for Mike Maker making a 2nd off the shelf move (23%). He exits a win in the G1 Manhattan and Maker wins (36%) with graded stakes runners.

Race #10 – G2 Jim Dandy – 1 1/8 – 6:18 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Always Dreaming  / #2 – Cloud Computing / #4 – Pavel  

Always Dreaming = John Velasquez aboard for Todd Pletcher with a son of Bodemeister. He’s been off since the Preakness and you might want to toss that race out. He should improve greatly cutting back 1 3/16 – 1 1/8 and the Derby winner looks to kick the second half of the season in fine fashion. The rail is winning at (21%) and the works leading up show readiness to make it back to the races.  Cloud Computing = Closer for the Chad Brown barn. The good news is Javier Castellano stays aboard off the Preakness win. He’s faced some of the best 3-yr-olds of the year and hopes for some pace to set him up. Pavel = Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez bringing a mdn winning son of Creative Cause. He was pretty impressive but this is a whole new level. O’Neill wouldn’t be coming this way if he didn’t think there was a chance for him to fit into the race.

 

Del Mar

Race #9 – G1 Bing Crosby – 6f – 9:10 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Drefong / #4 – Ransom the Moon / #8 – Roy H

Drefong = Son of Gio Ponti is 5/6 with lifetime wins. He’s been away from the races for 8 months and Bob Baffert knows how to bring them ready winning at a (27%) clip. He capped off 2016 going 5-in-a-row and winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Mike Smith in the saddle and he and Baffert are winning (82%) the last 60 days as a team. He is 1/1 at DM and his morning works show he ready for the task. Ransom the Moon = 2017 has been very good for this son of Malibu Moon with 2 wins and a 2nd. Cuts back in distance for the Phil D’Amato barn and has a flashy work to his credit. Roy H = Paco Lopez in the saddle for Peter Miller and has been off for two months winning the G2 True North at Belmont. Blistering works and seeking for his 4th in-a-row coming off the shelf. He’ll be dangerous.