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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 27

Stephen Foster night at Churchill Downs

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 27

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #8 – The G2 New York – 1 1/4 on the turf – 5:04 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Mrs Sippy / #7 – Mean Mary / #1 – Call Me Love

#6 Mrs Sippy closing daughter of Blame for Graham Motion and Joel Rosario. She’s been off for 7 months and comes back with some solid works ready to fire. She drops in class and Rosario wins 17% with his turf runners. Look for her late in the lane running quick. #7 Mean Mary is  speedy gal who hails from the Motion barn as well. She may play the part of the rabbit, or just take them start to finish under Luis Saez who wins 19% with speedy runners. #1 Call Me Love is a closer for the Christopher Clement going 2nd start off the layoff where they score 20% off this move with Irad Ortiz in the irons.

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Race #9 – The G2 True North – 6 1/2f – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Firenze Fire / #7 – Promises Fulfilled / #3 – Wicked Trick

#8 Firenze Fire is a solid stalker for Kelly Breen and Irad Ortiz. This is 2nd off the shelf and the barn scores 18% coming back ready. That was a better race in the G1 Carter than appears and he got good work that day. Ortiz wins 25% with sprinters and is 4 for 6 ITM over the course. #7 Promises Fulfilled is a speed gunning type for Dale Romans and Luis Saez in the saddle. Saez wins 21% with early runners and has some good works over the deep CD track. #3 Wicked Trick is a long range closer for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano who have done good work over the years.

Race #10 – The G1 Just A Game – 1 mile on the turf – 6:08 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Uni / #4 – Newspaperofrecord / #1 – Beau Recall

#6 Uni hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a long range closer with Joel Rosario in the irons. Been off for 7 months and comes flying late in the lane every time. She is 4 for 4 ITM at Belmont and will be double dangerous today. #4 Newspaperofrecord is an early runner who can be a true monster when she brings her best game. Her last win was impressive going 7f and the added distance will be welcome as Irad Ortiz wins 36% with Brown and 26% with early runners. #1Beau Recall is a very impressive closer from the Brad Cox barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. She loves to come calling late in the lane and has some solid works to have her ready. Ortiz teams up to win 20% with Cox and will be the major danger in the lane.

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Churchill Downs

Race #9 – The G2 Fleur de Lis – 1 1/8 – 5:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 -Midnight Bisou / #4 – Serengeti Empress / #7 – Motion Emotion

#5 Midnight Bisou is a late runner for Steve Asmussen and Mike Smith in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 ITM at CD and comes in with some good works. She loves the distance going 6 for 6 ITM  and will be a major factor when they turn for home. She is the one to beast and Smith in town is a positive sign. #4 Serengeti Empress is a speedy gal who exits the G1 Apple Blossom at OP. Thom Amoss is winning 20% at the meet, and Joe Talamo has the call. She will dictate the pace when the real running begins and may run into one tough gal with Midnight Bisou. If she doesn’t bring her best, Serengeti will take flight down the lane. #7 Motion Emotion is a mid pack stalker for Richard Baltas shipping in from OP. She’ll press the pace and try and play the spoiler role if all falls apart.

Race #10 – The G2 Stephen Foster – 1 1/8 – 5:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5- Tom’s d’ Etat / #6 – By My Standards / #2 – Pirate’s Punch

#5 Tom’s d’ Etat should lay just off the pace for Al Stall and Miguel Mena. He looks to go four in a row. He is 6 for 7 ITM at CD and will be double tough to beat. They move up in class and the trainer wins 25% off  a last race win. #6 By My Standards will be running right with Tom for Bret Calhoun and Gabe Saez. This son of Goldencents  exits off an impressive win at OP and seeks his fourth straight win as well. Been off for 56 days and has a few very nice works to prepare. #2 Pirate’s Punch is a stalker for Grant Foster looking to play the upset runner in here. Mike Smith aboard is interesting, and may be a little closer to the front right off the gate.


The Stephen Foster “Shines Bright” at Churchill

Stephen Foster Day / Recap – Ed Meyer

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The (G-3) Matt Winn Stakes – 1 1/16 on the dirt

#5 – Gray Sky = James Graham was aboard this son of Tapit, and I was intrigued from first glance. Gun Runner looked to have a paid workout under the lights at Churchill, and on paper it looked like an opportunity to nail the exacta or trifecta under the chalk. – He was 3/6 ITM over the deep CD oval, and was exiting a race that should alert players. His last race was an O.C. $75,000 race at 6 1/2f, and his usual distance is one mile or better. I like to find runners making this cutback in distance and then jump right back to business. His record going shorter is 3/4 ITM and D. Wayne Lukas is (32%) ITM going from a sprint to a route. I have spoke to many trainers over the years, and some like to have a “tune-up” effort and get everything tied down. He finished up a game second to the impressive Gun Runner and I think he may be ready to begin his summer campaign. – Keep your eyes peeled for the plump purses at Ellis Park.

The (G-2) Fleur de Lis Handicap – 1 1/8 on the dirt

#8 – Brooklynsway =  This filly has been up and down the ladder and has ran on every surface known to man. – She was making one of my favorite moves with the all weather to dirt switch. The Bernie Flint barn wins (20%) on this angle, and I’m really a backer of two off the all weather surface. This was her fifth start of the year, and I think we’re seeing a young lady who is maturing right before our eyes. She looks to have a versatile style and maybe a little less ground would be welcomed.

The (G-2) Wise Dan Stakes – 1 1/16 on the turf

#2 – The Pizza Man = This son of English Channel is a turf machine with 20/26 ITM efforts over the greensward. This was his first start off the layoff for the season and the bullet work on 6/11/16 sealed the deal he would go to post as the chalk. – Going a 1 1/16 off the shelf against this level had me looking elsewhere for the race. But after seeing the six wide move showing a strong late kick has me waiting for his next effort. – The Pizza Man will deliver.  – It’s only when and where from here.

The (G-1) Stephen Foster Handicap – 1 1/8 on the dirt

#5 – El Kabeir = This son of Scat Daddy looked good on paper as he has faced some tough guys in the past. – His first start back was on the turf in the (G-2) Dixie at Pimlico, and worked two straight bullet efforts in the morning before switching back to the dirt. That was his only start on the turf, and the barn wins (23%) on the second start off the layoff move. He finished up with good interest and is a bit a road warrior not needing to take his track with him. – The summer / fall season may be very good to this runner.