The $1 Million Blue Diamond – Analysis

The Blue Diamond stakes has been a “dead end” for most of the winners.  Bel Esprit (sire of the never defeated Black Caviar) and Redoute’s Choice (a top sire in Australia for over a decade) won, but so did many other horses that never won another race of this magnitude or have yet to be an influence at stud.  So what does that imply?  “The future is NOW, baby!”  Forget about the $3 Million Golden Slipper in April, or success at 3 years of age.  This is largely a glorious grab for the short-term cash.

Who are the most talented?  The top two horses are the colt #2 RUBICK (post 10 of 15) and the filly #12 EARTHQUAKE (post 15 of 16).  Generally speaking Aussie sprints favor posts much closer to the rail.  In particular, Earthquake is disadvantaged.  She has shown some ability to rate, so if the jock can keep her relaxed early she can factor in the finish.

However, there is a colt with a distance pedigree:  Street Cry — World Peace (Danehill), and a wonderful athletic build that has the scope and stride to easily handle the 1200 meter distance of the Blue Diamond.  That is #4 Chivalry (with a cozy post 5 of 16)!  The morning line for Chivalry is 5/1, but I expect he will be 8/1 or higher because of the big names in the race and the expected 16 horse field.

Because Chivalry lacks high early speed, exacta box him with #2 Rubick.  Rubick is an incredible physical specimen that has “Stallion” written all oven him.  Plus he’s wicked fast and he’ll get the jump on Earthquake.

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