Should you handicap based on a “Good” performance expected of the horse or the expectation of a “Bad” performance. I think you should start with a good performance and then work down. Here is what I mean,
-find all the plus sides, find what the horses top performance could be. Is the horses’ top performance good enough to win the race. If so, the horse has a shot. If not, eliminate for the top spot
-Now find the negatives. Poor trainer, declining form, etc. Expectation now drops 40%. Is that still good enough to win ?
Yes I am making it in very simple terms but it is a good guideline to rank the horses. I have found most of the time when a horse doesn’t have the talent to win even on a top performance they rarely do. Basically ranking the horses this way gives you an idea of who has a shot and who doesn’t.
Just a brief note on the Belmont. Since I didn’t submit or post my picks on it I can’t really go into saying I told you so, and would never do that. Only comment is that you couldn’t expect Chrome to run his top effort with a few key factors against him. That being said you could feel that a 10% less performance would be enough to win the race.
AND The UGLY, well that was simply to make the subject catchy.