Top Horses to Bet on Today – Friday, May 20 Analysis – Friday, May 20, 2022

by: Ed Meyer


Race #12 – The G3 Pimlico Special – 1 3/16 miles dirt – 5:10 pm Analysis / #8 – First Captain / #1 – Vindictive / #6 – Capocostello

#8 First Captain is a stalking son of Curlin for Shug McGaughey and Luis Saez in the saddle. 3rd start off the layoff and adds blinkers today. Three straight bullet works and the equipment change have me feeling they are in top gear; adding Saez seals the deal. He is 5 for 6 ITM lifetime and should be much closer to the pace. The rider wins 19% with stalkers and Shug wins 20% with graded stakes. One of the bullet works was on a muddy track and this gives me more confidence in his ability. #1 Vindictive is coming off a 56 day break from the races for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Uncle Mo has bounced up and down the class ladder and still has an attractive look of  runner who will relish the ground with a rail trip. They could be setting up his stable mate Untreated who is a long range closer, but I’m not sold on the other part of the Todd Squad. Vindictive looks the part and has the feel of a runner ready for a top effort. #6 Capocostello is a late runner for Fausto Gutierrez with Flavien Prat in the driver’s seat. Three back he was in Panama and doing well. He just ran a game effort in the G3 Ghostzapper and should be able to handle the distance. The barn wins 28% with graded stakes and Prat wins 21% going a route of ground. He’s coming off a 48 day break and should be fresh and ready. Look for a late run on the far turn.

Race #13 – The G2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 – 5:44 pm Analysis / #10 – Adare Manor /#7 – Distinctly Possible / #11 – Radio Days

#10 Adare Manor is a speedy daughter of Uncle Mo and makes her 2nd start off the layoff for Sean McCarthy and John Velasquez. She ships in from California and ran a lights out effort in the G2 Santa Anita Oaks. Since shipping from Baffert to Tim Yakteen she was a bridesmaid by a neck and sports a bullet work. She is the one to beat, and with sunny skies in the forecast she could leave them in her wake. Since Johnny V took over for Umberto Rispoli he seems to fit her well. I think she may be more versatile than her past efforts show, and watching the replay of her last effort gives me plenty of reasons to make her my key. #7 Distinctly Possible is a lightly raced daughter of Curlin for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She has been knocking on the door every effort even though it was her maiden break after running big in the G1 Alcibiades. She drops the Lasix in the stake and should make a big run late with all the pace. #11 Radio Days is a daughter of the red hot sire Gun Runner. She has plenty of late kick for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario in the saddle. She runs honest each outing and looks to be maturing at the right time. You have to love the price, don’t leave her out of your exotics.




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