I think I can speak for everyone when I say “We are all looking for value when we bet.” I think the easiest guide is to compare the current odds to the posted morning lines. BUT, this is only a guide. If you play certain tracks regularly you know which tracks have good morning lines and which tracks are terrible morning lines. Most of the guys that do the morning lines set the lines as to how the betting public will bet the horses. ML guys are not giving you a winner or who they think will win the race, simply a guide line.
Why is it important to know the good ML to the bad ones is simple a bad ML that says a horse
should be 10-1 and goes off at 6-1 can still be good value. I rarely play a horse that is way under
valued, but if you feel a horse should be paying $10.00 and is going off at $12.00 then it is a play.
I am not going to get into bashing some tracks that simply make most races 2-1, 3-1, 5-1, 8-1 because it shouldn’t take you long to figure those ones out. The good tracks will have ml odds that vary. Will even have lines of 1-1 or even 3-5, knowing full well that is what the odds will be.
The purpose of this article is to get you to understand that a horse can have good value even if
your horse is lower than the morning line odds. Also to make you aware that the tracks with the
same ML for all the races only cheat the public and the sharp players can really take advantage
of these bad ML that certainly effect the new players to the game.
Tip of the day: After you cap the race, decide the price you want before the betting begins on some of the horse in the race. If you are between a couple of horses and one is a big overlay, your decision is made for you.
Remember this, “You do not need to pick as many winners when you are getting your proper value.”