Understanding the trainer and formulator numbers

by STRETCH

Seems the new fad is using the “Formulator Facts.”  They can be very useful but if everyone starts seeing them and using them, then there is little to no advantage. But if you can distinguish which angles are better than the other ones, then you may have an advantage.  The trainer stats, that are at the bottom of each horse in the PPs  have been around awhile now and can also be useful if you understand the numbers.

What am I referring to as to understanding them, you ask?  Well I think most understand the ROI and most can figure out percentages of good and bad.

But here is what I mean:
Overall trainer stats, A trainer that wins at a 30% clip overall, but has a 10% angle is clearly not his best angle to win races, it actually hurts his overall number. A trainer that wins at 5%, but hits a certain angle at 10% is better. Clearly the second trainer doesn’t win much but when his % doubles he might be a trainer I take a look at.

Sample size is everything as well. A 50% win angle on 4 races means not much, but a 20 race angle at 30% is far better. The 30% certainly has some substance.

Ranking angles. You need to decide if a trainer is has a 5% angle of a long layoff, but is 20% off a mile back. Well what does it matter if he had a mile race 6 months ago.

Anyone that follows stats in anything, whether it’s sports or accounting, you can always adjust stats to favor a little one way or the other. My point to all of this is just don’t read a formulator fact or a trainer stat and leave it at that.  Investigate all the factors and then apply them, if they even apply

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