9/27/13: My editor has been helping me post my odds lines for selected Australian races every Friday. For those that do not know me, I have a Masters’ Degree in engineering and I have a side business where I teach and tutor high school math and science to students hoping to improve their grades. I’m pretty comfortable with numbers in general, and especially comfortable with using Excel spreadsheets. Excel does all my calculations (yay!). My odds lines are PERFORMANCE based – usually a combination of speed and (if available) pace figures.
The reason I bring this up is because odds lines can be used to point out several things: (1) Which horses are overbet, (2) Which horses have value, and (3) which EXOTIC WAGERS might pay extremely well. I will address each point in order.
(1) Most top and second choices are overbet. This is not universal, but the crowd likes to put money on horses that “look good” in the Form and that drastically hurts the payoffs. My advice to anybody looking to improve their profit success in betting to win and exotics is look at the 3rd, 4th and 5th choices and see if you can find promising factors in their past records. These options are more likely to to produce profits in the long term, as either win keys OR as keys in the exotics.
(2) An odds line that is properly grounded in the fundamentals will tell you which horse(s) to bet. It makes betting way, way easier because in the long term one will be focusing on a limited number of PROFITABLE scenarios. In other words you can minimize risk and maximize reward while minimizing mental effort.
(3) To get explosive exotic payoffs try to combine OVERLAYS with OVERLAYS. This is probably obvious, but how often does a player reflexively combine favorites with long shots in exotic plays, just hoping to cash? If a horse is an underlay in the win pool most likely it is an underlay in the exotic pools for that very reason.
EXAMPLE – UNDERWOOD STAKES (Moonee Valley): This race was run last week and featured the undefeated Atlantic Jewel, who was 9 for 9 wins, lifetime. My line said she was the horse to beat, but after making adjustments to my line I had her at 4/1 fair odds. An Aussie betting service I belong to had her at 8/5 against the same field. The crowd sent her off at 3/5. Tell me, how does one consistently make money on a horse at 3/5 that on the cold dope is probably worth a 5/2 chance?
And yes she was game but she LOST. MAYBE a player could use a horse like this in a pick 6 or pick 5 as a single, but almost everyone else will pursue a similar strategy.
The point of wagering on horse racing is to use different ideas to find VALUE. Or watch horses run around in a circle as jockeys wear multicolored jackets. But we know that watching horses passively won’t generate an income.
USING AN ODDS LINE The odds line I am attaching is for the first four races at Mornington – 1B, 2B, 3B, 4B….Just look at the odds on my fair line and if you see it’s odds are much higher than the odds line, consider a bet! Example, #9 Tequila Red is 5/2 on my fair odds line. If you can get 4/1 or better on Tequila Red it would be a good chance to get some cash.
|Mornington – Race 1B|
|Friday, Sept. 27th (10:35 P.M. EDT)|
|9||Tequila Red||15||Faced much, much tougher.||36.0||5/2|
|7||Pompeius||18||1st up. Lightly raced.||34.0||7/2|
|6||Lucky Striker||2||4th up. May be regressing.||32.0||6/1|
|14||Nicamorae||5||Bred to be any kind. 2nd up for Hayes.||31.0||8/1|
|5||Godavari||11||Good debut run at 60/1 odds. 2nd up today||30.0||12/1|
|10||That’s Freedom||14||1st career start, no barrier trials, Peter Moody trains.||30.0||12/1|
|15||Victorious Tale||13||1st up. Consistent below the best in here.||29.0||25/1|
|Mornington – Race 2B|
|Friday, Sept. 27th (11:10 P.M. EDT)|
|9||Mairead||9||Tactical speed, good form, likes the track.||38.0||5/2|
|5||Taxi Joe||5||Heavily raced||36.0||5/1|
|8||Good Thinking||7||2nd up, fresh, gets weight off with apprentice jock.||36.0||5/1|
|2||Whatanexcuse (NZ)||13||Heavily raced||35.0||9/1|
|10||Apollo Bay||2||Will lead and try to last. American speed pedigree.||35.0||9/1|
|11||Hannaford||6||Won at this track/distance combo. Interesting.||34.0||20/1|
|12||Star of Choisir||10||Tactical speed, low win percentage.||34.0||30/1|
|13||Chilli Beach||14||3rd up, appears slightly outgunned.||34.0||30/1|
|14||I Maximus||4||1st up, appears to just be getting exercise.||34.0||30/1|
|Mornington – Race 3B|
|Friday, Sept. 27th (11:50 P.M. EDT)|
|11||Celeritas||1||Has a monster-sized effort number from last month.||33.0||3/1|
|15||La Belle Mom||5||A very dangerous horse in this field.||32.0||7/2|
|16||Mean Streak||17||Very well bred and well connected. Expecting Improvement.||30.0||6/1|
|4||Jeruca Boy||16||Can’t fault – going the right way with big win.||28.0||10/1|
|10||Inflatable Miss||9||Last two races quite good. Definitely a factor.||28.0||10/1|
|14||Professional Miss||3||Took a long time to break her maiden – a bad sign.||28.0||10/1|
|2||Heyday||13||Well bet, OK efforts. Top apprentice jock.||28.0||10/1|
|13||Marlais||2||Good “Heavy” track number, but slower on the dry.||26.0||30/1|
|Mornington – Race 4B|
|Friday, Sept. 28th (12:30 A.M. EDT)|
|15||Rich Jack||16||Wide draw, but classy speed.||41.0||8/5|
|3||Beau Jez||7||Will show sped. Competivive in this field. Top jock up.||36.0||7/1|
|9||Mightyblitz||9||Sharply on the improve! Don’t ignore.||36.0||7/1|
|1||Beau Brommell||13||2 polytrack runs – back to grass. Not impossible.||35.0||11/1|
|5||Beyond Infinity||2||Well connected. Might be a touch slow.||35.0||11/1|
|10||Spectral Black||14||Has a good record first up. Factor.||35.0||11/1|
|8||Denizen||4||1st up, needs to get fit for longer races.||34.0||25/1|
|11||Heroic Tale||11||Tough read, might be a touch slow.||34.0||25/1|
|12||Wairoa||8||1st up – definitely needs race fitness for longer efforts.||34.0||25/1|