Video Replay Report for Sat. 5/9/15

Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com

5/7/2015

NEW FORMAT! Since this sheet did well with the Kentucky Oaks (Lovely Maria, 2nd pick) and American Pharoah (top Ky Derby Pick), I am going to use race replays to break down 2 Saturday races every week. The advantage to the bettors is they can use the information THAT WEEKEND. This week the races will be the 7th from Belmont (Grade 3 Beaugay for fillies) and the 9th from Belmont (Grade 1 Man o’ War). In addition there will be horses to watch that had tough trips, but over Kentucky Derby weekend nothing stood out to me.

 

Saturday R7, Grade 3 “The Beaugay” (8.5 furlongs turf) – Selections

1st – #4 Photo Call

2nd – #1 J Wonder

3rd – #7 Discreet Marq

4th – #6 Testa Rossi

 

#1 J Wonder – Ran very well considering she was 3 to 4 paths wide for the entire race and she was caught in a paceless affair (49 seconds, then 1:13 3/5). Usually Shug’s horses improve the second time out, and Saturday will be her second start for Shug and second-time U.S. Upgrade Chances

 

#2 Radiator moves up from a nice N1x allowance win at Keeneland, but I will add she saved ALL the ground and faces a better field today. She wasn’t a win machine in Europe and I doubt that Lasix moved he up that much. Downgrade Chances

 

#3 Recepta wasn’t that impressive on film and the BRIS numbers support my opinion. She also loses John Velazquez, who really pushed her in the winner circle. Downgrade Chances

 

#4 Photo Call is a daughter of Galileo and the hope was she’d win going longer, but her N1x allowance win at Keeneland in October going 1 mile puts her right in the mix. She slightly hopped at the start, was blocked on the backstretch, and had to avoid tired runners on the far turn and still ran away from the field. A race at Belmont at the 8.5 furlong distance may be just what the doctor ordered. Upgrade Chances

 

#5 Carloline Thomas has won only one time in her last 10 races, and that was a race where she rode the rail nearly the entire race. Doesn’t appear to have the pace to keep up with these early, and doesn’t appear to have the class to be a factor late. Downgrade Chances

 

#6 Testa Rossi is a good race mare but has lost often enough to be exposed as not being a great one. Last two races were mediocre. Probably still a pick 4 use because of the powerful Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz team, but likely will be an underlay. Mixed Messages

#7 Discreet Mark has won over $1.1 Million and makes her first start of 2015 with this race probably a prep for the Grade 1 Just A Game on the Belmont Gay card in early June. Since she may need a race, and this certainly is not the target, you may want to leave her off your win tickets and play her when it’s “game on” Belmont Day. Downgrade Chances

 

 

 

Saturday R9, Grade 1 “The Man o’ War” (8.5 furlongs turf) – Selections

1st – #1 Imagining

2nd – #6 Hardest Core

3rd – #4 Twilight Eclipse

4th – #7 Dynamic Sky

5th – #2 Hyper

 

#1 Imagining has lost three times to Main Sequence, but when he isn’t getting dogged by the turf champ he’s 9 wins in 19 turf starts (and 5 for 9 at Belmont). Imagining really needs to be close to the pace. Rarely pays a good price but probably a must use in the pick 4 because of his high win percentage. Tough customer

#2 Hyper has not raced in 539 days but has competitive speed figures for Chad Brown and John Velazquez. Use on spread pick 4 tickets.

#3 War Dancer just doesn’t win very often. Speed figures are slower than the others. I’ll make him beat me. Downgrade Chances

#4 Twilight Eclipse usually finds a way to lose, but a five of those losses were to Main Sequence. I am using him in my pick 4.

#5 Comes the Dream – first of the layoff going against some legitimate monsters. Downgrade chances.

#6 Hardest Core has won 3 times of layoffs in 4 attempts (and his trainer is 7 for 15 with the move). The 2014 Arlington Million winner figures to be very live here, especially as he is a year older and more mature, often an overlooked factor with grass horses. Upgrade Chances

#7 Dynamic Sky doesn’t win very often, but he closed like a freight train at Keeneland after a wide trip and really deserved the win. Another one to use in spread pick 4 tickets.

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