Video Replay Report – Friday, 6/26/15

Friday Night Video Race Preview(s) of the Week!

Weather Conditions – showery early in the day through the afternoon (60%)

Expected track condition – Good/sealed

Prairie Meadows Friday, June 26th, Race 5 – Iowa Distaff (mile and 1/16th dirt), Fillies and Mares 3up, purse = $100,000 (Listed)

Top – #4 Flashy American (5/2 ML)

2nd – #3 Pretty Fancy (6/1 ML)

3rd – #7 Diva’s Diamond (3/1 ML)

There is a lot of speed in here – Annuity, Ketel Twist and More Than Even all want the be on the lead going long, and Diva’s Diamond’s last two wins showing have her on the pace too. When in doubt, use the closers, #4 Flashy American (coming of a scintillating 4f breeze at Churchill Downs) and #3 Pretty Fancy, whose last 3 races have been highly competitive. #7 Diva’s Diamond loves Prairie Meadows and would be no surprise here, but these mares are tougher than the usual Prairie Meadows routers.

Prairie Meadows Friday, June 26th, Race 6 – Iowa Sprint Handicap (6 furlongs dirt), 3up, purse = $125,000 (Listed)

Top – #2 Bruvver Max (8/1 ML)

2nd – #1 Bobcat Jim (9/5 ML)

3rd – #6 Delaunay (8/5 ML)

My top pick, #2 Bruvver Max, looks like a router with really long legs but he’s much better sprinting. If you look through his PPs his best two races were SPRINTING at Prairie Meadows. This guy might have a future going short. 2nd pick #1 Bobcat Jim will have to break very well to get off the rail, but he’s just quicker than Bruvver Max and should be able to find a spot outside Delaunay.

#6 Delaunay is THE speed in here and will be sent hard from the outside post. The negatives on Delaunay are (1) He has lost as the odds on favorite three times in sprint races at Prairie Meadows, and (2) he’s eight years old. This is the age that old geldings hand it off in sprint races to the younger generation. In his last race he offered no resistance when Bobcat Jim ran by, and it’s quite likely history will repeat again Friday night. Full disclosure – I will still use Delaunay in my pick 5.

 

Prairie Meadows Friday, June 26th, Race 7 – Saylorville (6 furlongs dirt), 3up Fillies and Mares, purse = $100,000 (Listed)

Top – #1 Heykittykittykitty (4/1 ML)

2nd – #6 Bird Maker (10/1 ML)

3rd – #10 Dancin’ Lil (8/1 ML)

4th – # 3 Sugar Shock (7/2 ML)

This is a strange race in that there are 10 horses entered in a 6 furlong sprint and there is not ONE “E” horse (in other words, no one grabs the lead in the first quarter mile consistently). That will make pace handicapping difficult and I will try to stick largely with class/speed figures.

#1 Heykittykittykitty is 2nd in BRIS Prime Power and ran well against Street Story in a Grade 3 at CD, which is at least one level in prestige higher than this race. Street Story then ran very well at Belmont last Saturday in the Grade 2 Bed O’ Roses. This mare may need running luck from post 1, but without a doubt, this mare is the class in the field.

#6 Bird Maker is really quirky. She either crushes her opposition or runs very poorly. Her race on June 11th of 2015 was dominant in a sneaky way, as she had to make a very long, sustained run into moderate fractions (23 2/5, 46 2/5) and she toughed it out for a good win. Last year she won a 6 furlong allowance race by 11 lengths (yes, it really happened). Both of these powerhouse efforts were on the Churchill Downs main track, so maybe that limits her effectiveness. But I think I can give her a chance at Prairie Meadows and see if she likes this surface too.

#10 Dancin’ Lil ran a lot of fairly fast 6 furlong sprint races last year and I am going to give her a chance getting back on real dirt in 2015 and going from the rail to post 10 to strut her stuff.

#3 Sugar Shock is 1st in Bris Prime Power now and would have spanked this field last year. She DID win an early season sprint at Oaklawn in January 2015, and then her connections pressed onto the Apple Blossom against the likes of Untapable, which was basically a flawed strategy. Back sprinting tonight, I think she is the mare most likely to send early from post 3, which may turn out to be the winning move.

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