Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com
Horses to Watch from last week:
Belmont 5/25/15 Race 5 the Mike Lee: #7 Wincoma attempted to make the jump from N1x allowance winner to stakes winner and seemed to bounce significantly from the exertions of the allowance win. Hopefully this one will get a freshening and be able to show what he can do at Saratoga.
Belmont 5/25/15 Race 10 New Yord bred $40,000 maiden claimers (turf): #9 Pink Freud Live put in a great run off a very long layoff only to get caught in thast few jumps by a horse that got a better trip along the rail for most of the race. Give PFL another chance second out at this level.
Santa Anita 5/25/15 Race 8 the Gamely (Group 1 turf): #7 Elektrum is bred to be a really good turf horse and in the Gamely she just wasn’t able to get out of the pocket and claim victory. She may not be a world beater but she is still eligible for allowance races and she can crush at that level.
Video Race Preview of the Week!
Penn National Race 1 (kicks off the all-stakes Pick 4), Saturday, May 30th, 2015
The PENN OAKS ($150,000), 1 Mile Turf, Fillies 3 years old.
Selections: Top pick – #7 Strict Compliance
2nd pick – #2 Quality Rocks
3rd pick – #1 Red Sashay
4th pick – #6 Lady Bling
I think #7 STRICT COMPLIANCE (4/1 ML) really wants a mile. When she ran a mile and 3/16ths on the turf at Keeneland she pulled a bit early but was still able to win. If one examines her pedigree it is also more of a miler pedigree (Into Mischief/Grand Slam broodmare). I don’t expect her to be 4/1 but I would consider that to be a VERY fat price.
I have seen #2 QUALITY ROCKS (2/1 ML) run a few times and she has lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in four of her last five races. She stays on her inside (‘left”) lead too long and just gets tired. There is not much speed signed up (only #2 Quality Rocks and #8 Gypsy Jody have any early pace), so maybe Lezcano sends hard to the lead and plays “catch me.” I really am not a fan but the race shape favors her and trainer Bill Mott and Lezcano are 7 for their last 17 together for a whopping 132% flat bet profit.
#1 RED SASHAY (9/2 ML) is really interesting. At Gulfstream Park proper she has three wins in four starts, all at this one mile turf distance, and trainer Jane Cibelli hits 32% winners second time off the layoff for a 36% plat bet profit over 114 starters. In addition he final mile was roughly in 22 and 2/5 despite going five wide. The water gets deeper here but this Miss may well be up to it.
#6 LADY BLING (6/1) has the best turf pedigree in the field and has never had a chance to close into FAST FRACTIONS on the turf. The fastest splits she has seen have been 50/1:15. If they go 49/1:13, which they figure to do, this gal might eat it up.