Each week there seems to have a new added feature to help us handicap the races. At times it is simply information overload. There is the ROI on formulator facts or the trainer stats at the bottom of the form. What should you follow? I think this is a great question and at times I can get confused myself. Over the years I have made some rules for myself to try and follow, and so should you (but that is another blog topic)
Here is an easy example:
Trainer 2nd off layoff: 12 starts .0 $0.0
Trainer sprint to a route: 6 starts .5 $5.50
One bad stat and one great stat. Which do you go with ? I start by weighing the price, is the horse at even money I probably pass betting this horse to win, in a sequence bet and have a few others I will include the horse. Horse paying $10 or higher I would bet the horse to win a little. Obviously there are many other factors to base decision on betting the horse or not, but trainer stats need to be factored in. As the price goes down I feel you need to have stronger positive angles to use the horse.
When I cap the race I always start with the horse’s pps first and determine if the horse has enough talent to be competitive or a chance to improve. If the answer is no, then all these other stats do not really matter that much to me.
Now a days you can be a lazy handicapper because so much extra work has already been done for you, but remember other lazy cappers see the same stats that you do. You need to be able to sort them out in a way that works for you to be successful.