Who fits the Golden Slipper?

At $3.2 Million, the Golden Slipper is the largest purse for 2 year old thoroughbreds in the world.  Since 2 year old racing is in many ways the backbone of the Australian racing industry, it is appropriate that the race is held in Australia.

Expected early pace:  Fast, but not TOO fast – not many front runners are entered.

Expected ground:  DEAD 5 (equivalent to a “good” turf course in the USA).

My Golden Slipper picks:

1st – #10 Mossfun  2nd – #9 Earthquake  3rd – #13 Alpha Miss  4th – #11 Oakleigh Girl

Good luck if you are playing the Golden Slipper card – $6.3 Million in purses Friday night!

Below I give my assessment of each horse in the Slipper.  It is a 118% line, so it should be a decent comparison to a real betting pool.

#Bet Number, Horse, (Trainer/Jockey – Post position)

#1 Unencumbered (Bjorn Baker/Craig Williams – post 13) Wide draw does not help this one’s chances, but there will be a lot of sentiment with this horse because the horse’s former jockey, Nathan Berry, died this week from an epilepsy seizure at the age of 23,  IF the pace is very fast early Williams might be able to “slot in” behind the speed and save some ground on the turn.  Would have to improve 2 or 3 lengths off its current form to beat the favorites.  My odds 15/1

#2 Jabali (Mick Price/Glen Boss – post 1) still hasn’t broken his maiden and was terrible in his March 22nd prep for this race.  I see no reason for him to win a race of this magnitue, but he will save a lot of ground from post 1 and might be a good horse to use in the 3rd and 4th slot on supers.  He also gave Earthquake a minor scare in the $1 Million Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield earlier in the year.  My odds 30/1

#3 Ghibellines (Peter Snowden/Hugh Bowman – post 2)  Trainer basically stated this horse is a big idiot, but he is hopeful the horse will continue to improve mentally.  Ghibellines is a half brother to champion Guelph, and his last race indicates he wants 6 furlongs or longer, which is never a bad trait to have in a Slipper candidate.  My odds 10/1

# 4 Valencia (Ms. Gai Waterhouse/Tommy Berry – post 4)  This horse hasn’t done a lot wrong and his speed figures are improving every race – usually a very good sign.  Human connections are top notch and I would recommend using this horse in your late pick 4.  My odds are 10/1

#5 Cornrow (Mick Price/Damien Oliver – post 8) another maiden that looks hopeless for the win but might be useful underneath in trifectas and supers.  My odds 30/1

#6 Law (Ms Gai Waterhouse/Tim Clark – post 7) is not really bred to be a top two year old and appears to be going backwards at the wrong time.  Not my kind of animal for a Slipper.  My odds 50/1

#7 Modoc (Paul Perry/Blake Shinn – post 3) is so slow I wonder if his presence on the track will interfere with the other horses.  Possibly the most likely horse to finish last.  My odds 100/1

#8 Risen From Doubt (Tony McEvoy/Nash Rawiller – post 6) this horse has only won one race, and the horse he beat, #2 Jabali, has yet to break his maiden.  Ugh.  At least the human connections are very good.  My odds 30/1

#9 Earthquake (Peter Snowden/Kerrin McEvoy – post 12) will be the favorite, she has the best speed figures, and she is undefeated.  It was reported she spiked a minor fever this week, so I will leave it up to you readers if you want to jump in on the 6/5 odds.  I think the way to play her is use her in the late pick 4 but try to beat her in the win and exacta pools.  My odds 8/5

#10 Mossfun (‘Team Hawkes’/John McDonald – post 11) gave Earthquake all she wanted in their last race, and that was on a day when the course was very much favoring front runners and may have helped Earthquake.  I look for Mossfun to turn the tables and win the 2014 Golden Slipper.  My odds 7/2

#11 Oakleigh Girl (DJ Bougoure/Craig Newitt – post 10) comes into this race super fresh and may well be gunned to the lead.  If nobody goes with her she may stick around for a very long time.  My odds 15/1

#12 Eloping (Morgan & Widdison/Steven Baster – post 14) is a very one dimensional speed horse and had not shown any ability to get 6 furlongs at this level.  Her wide post draw of 14 will force her to gun early, possibly spoiling it for other speed horses, but I give her no chance to win this.  My odds 100/1

#13 Alpha Miss (GR Nickson/Jason Collet – post 9) has the perfect style for Australian racing – a mid-pack runner that can finish strongly.  Right there with #9 Earthquake and #10 Mossfun in her last race, and her speed figures are improving.  She is definitely a late pick 4 horse at the least.  My odds 10/1

#14 Bring Me the Maid (Peter Moody/Chad Schofield – post 5) is a deep closer in a big field that took advantage of a rain-soaked track bias to rally against a moderate group of stakes animals.  Unlikely to win but  definitely a horse for the super underneath.  My odds 15/1

#15 Memorial (Peter Snowden/Christian Reith – post 16) does not appear to be getting any better and in this field that will definitely get him beat.  My odds 50/1

#16 Believe Yourself (GA Ryan/Brenton Avdulla – post 15) is well bred and has done nothing wrong.  Great human connections, especially for a big two year old race.  Her wide post draw is definitely a concern.  My odds 20/1

Leave a Reply